Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

What’s Happening with MA-SEN?

with one comment

Pretty much everyone has now defaulted to “toss-up,” though there are some reasons for Democrats to hope. Josh Marshall matches my sense that renewed enthusiasm on the Dem side may have finally arrested Brown’s momentum, but maybe not in time. (More on that point, and the race in general, here.) Nate Silver tries to put a happy face on things with a post arguing that a blue-state effect could push Coakley over the top, and Chris Bowers has been pushing his own ad-hoc statistical method that he says proves Coakley is still the favorite. But this could all just be wishful thinking.

I’ll predict a Coakley win, but not a big one, and I’ll be pretty nervous Tuesday night. My only real comments about this fiasco are what I tweeted the other night: (1) The Massachusetts Senate race proves there is *literally nothing* Democratic Party leaders can’t screw up and (2) I feel like I, a nonreligious anti-military vegetarian socialist who doesn’t live in the state, could win a Senate race in Massachusetts if I were running as a Democrat. I have no idea how the Democratic leadership could let the Coakley campaign bomb this badly. Wake up, y’all.

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  1. […] from the polling screen on down; nobody really knows anything about how this race will turn out. I still think Coakley’s party-ID and GOTV advantages will help her squeak out the win, but she’s […]

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