Gerry Canavan

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Posts Tagged ‘Martha Coakley

Brown Wins! Hooray!

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BREAKING NEWS MUST CREDIT GERRYCANAVAN.WORDPRESS.COM: Democratic Party unable to find own ass with both hands. Developing…

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January 19, 2010 at 9:25 pm

False Hope Watch

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The Massachusetts Secretary of State now estimates that turnout in the special election could be as much as 2.2 million, which gets us into the range Coakley would actually need to win. A computer glitch at the Boston Globe from earlier this afternoon agrees: Coakley has this locked up.

Open Left has some actually helpful information.

UPDATE: Wow. Here’s more information than you probably require from the Swing State Project. Via Daily Kos.

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January 19, 2010 at 5:18 pm

Reconciliation Strikes Back?

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Silver lining watch: the loss of the sixtieth seat means that reconciliation, and perhaps even the public option, could ride again.

Now, it won’t—but it could.

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January 19, 2010 at 12:35 pm

MA-Sen Roundup

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Some last-minute revisionism on MA-SEN from FiveThirtyEight’s other blogger and (ugh) John Zogby bolsters my increasingly quixotic hopes that party ID and GOTV advantage will pull it out for Coakley, who, at least, is still predicting victory. (She’s also recovering somewhat on InTrade after plummeting there this weekend amidst a sea of pro-Brown media hype.) Anecdotal reports of high turnout are good news for Coakley boosters, as, as Nate puts it, all the scenarios that involve Coakley having a shot of winning involve high turnout; the poll screens that show her losing assume low turnout because this is a special election. (Ben Smith has a more mixed take on turnout and what it means here.) Even the snow could, potentially, flow her way, depending on where it hits the state worst; her GOTV organization should be much larger, with much more experience in getting people to the polls in any sort of weather, while Brown has supposedly hired temps.

Here’s Politco’s What to Watch in Massachusetts today.

Assuming Coakley doesn’t win, it’ll be time for some pretty furious pro-Dem spinning, on which Ezra Klein is getting started early. Jonathan Chait assists, and assists. Steve Benen looks to the backup plan. Matt Yglesias isn’t even bothering to pretend a Brown victory doesn’t ruin everything. By all accounts Andrew Sullivan has given up. The Nation’s has six scenarios.

SIXTH: DEMOCRATS GET THE WAKE-UP CALL AND CHANGE FOR THE BETTER
Brown wins and Obama and the Democrats recognize that they misplayed the hand they were dealt by voters in 2008. They do not abandon health-care reform, but they recognize that they must do it better – and they set a rapid but reasonable timeline to accomplish the goal.

Hahahahaha. But seriously folks…

Regardless of the outcome, Jon Stewart is appropriately apoplectic. Coakley was asked her favorite cream pie. She said banana.

MA-SEN Weather Report

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Snow in Boston today. Advantage: who knows. But probably not us.

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January 19, 2010 at 8:51 am

MA-SEN Thought of the Day

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Thought of the day from FiveThirtyEight commenter MattH:

A decade from now, I think today will surely be seen as a turning point in the Obama administration: either as the inflection point of a downward spiral into Carter-like failure (I have enormous personal admiration for Carter as a person of deep integrity who failed at the realpolitik needed for a successful Presidency, whereas I have little admiration for GWB but clearly his Administration got things done), or the moment that shocked Obama into a change in course that leads to ultimate success. I have no idea which it will be.

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January 19, 2010 at 8:47 am

Monday Night

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* While noting the intangibles that could still tilt the race to Coakley, the FiveThirtyEight.com model now puts Brown as the 3-to-1 favorite. Chris Bowers holds out hope. There were polls before 2008’s New Hampshire primary, too;  the only poll that counts is still on Election Day, so if you live in Massachusetts, make sure you vote.

* Ten Things the US Can and Should Do for Haiti. Via Cynical-C, who notes that they’ve already done #5.

* Fear of the poor is hampering Haiti rescue. The Looting Lie.

* Departmental budgets are being slashed nationwide, but there’s always more money for university presidents.

* In this analysis, Fosse and Gross do not dispute that faculty members are more liberal than the public at large. Rather, they make two main arguments. First they look at a range of characteristics that apply disproportionately to professors but are not unique to professors, and examine the political leanings associated with these characteristics — finding that several of them explain a significant portion of the political gap between faculty members and others. Then, they offer what they call a new theory to explain why academe may attract more liberals, regardless of whether they have those characteristics.

The paper finds that 43 percent of the political gap can be explained because professors are more likely than others:

* To have high levels of educational attainment.
* To experience a disparity between their levels of educational attainment and income.
* To be either Jewish, non-religious, or a member of a faith that is not theologically conservative Protestant.
* To have a high tolerance for controversial ideas.

The analysis is based on data from the General Social Survey from 1974-2008. Beyond the items above, a smaller but significant impact also was found because professors are more likely than others to have lived in an urban area growing up and to have fewer children.

What I’m Looking At This Morning

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* While I’m certain that the neoliberal project will resume soon, I have to agree with Think Progress that what we’ve seen in Haiti thus far is not properly described as an “invasion.” Like it or not, the U.S. military is the (only) organization that has the resources to administer aid on this scale; we should be vigilant about mission creep and work hard for things like debt forgiveness, but (it seems to me) the U.S. military presence really is on the side of the angels, at least so far.

* Philip Kennicott on why the media doesn’t censor the images coming out of Haiti. Kennicott is right to raise the issue, but his explanation is pretty clearly incomplete; the article doesn’t manage to use either the word “race” or “racism” even once.

* What Bush did to Haiti. Of course, we should remember that U.S. imperialism in Haiti has a much longer history than just Bush, Clinton, and Bush.

* I’m not sure “brave” is quite the word I’d use to describe the Royal Caribbean cruiseships that are now resuming their trips to Haiti.

“I just can’t see myself sunning on the beach, playing in the water, eating a barbecue, and enjoying a cocktail while [in Port-au-Prince] there are tens of thousands of dead people being piled up on the streets, with the survivors stunned and looking for food and water,” one passenger wrote on the Cruise Critic internet forum. 

“It was hard enough to sit and eat a picnic lunch at Labadee before the quake, knowing how many Haitians were starving,” said another. “I can’t imagine having to choke down a burger there now.”

Some booked on ships scheduled to stop at Labadee are afraid that desperate people might breach the resort’s 12ft high fences to get food and drink, but others seemed determined to enjoy their holiday.”I’ll be there on Tuesday and I plan on enjoying my zip line excursion as well as the time on the beach,” said one.

* Obama approval still closely tracking Reagan’s.

* Nate continues to model the MA-SEN race. As the link says, assumptions are everything right now, from the polling screen on down; nobody really knows anything about how this race will turn out. I still think Coakley’s party-ID and GOTV advantages will help her squeak out the win, but she’s been a pretty terrible candidate, and Brown an unusually strong one, in a moment that (sadly, wrongly, terribly) favors the GOP.

* Science proves blondes are less fun.

* And important reporting at Harper’s: An army sergeant blows the whistle on Guantánamo “suicides.” Via Spencer Ackerman.

What’s Happening with MA-SEN?

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Pretty much everyone has now defaulted to “toss-up,” though there are some reasons for Democrats to hope. Josh Marshall matches my sense that renewed enthusiasm on the Dem side may have finally arrested Brown’s momentum, but maybe not in time. (More on that point, and the race in general, here.) Nate Silver tries to put a happy face on things with a post arguing that a blue-state effect could push Coakley over the top, and Chris Bowers has been pushing his own ad-hoc statistical method that he says proves Coakley is still the favorite. But this could all just be wishful thinking.

I’ll predict a Coakley win, but not a big one, and I’ll be pretty nervous Tuesday night. My only real comments about this fiasco are what I tweeted the other night: (1) The Massachusetts Senate race proves there is *literally nothing* Democratic Party leaders can’t screw up and (2) I feel like I, a nonreligious anti-military vegetarian socialist who doesn’t live in the state, could win a Senate race in Massachusetts if I were running as a Democrat. I have no idea how the Democratic leadership could let the Coakley campaign bomb this badly. Wake up, y’all.