Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘Washington D.C.

More for Wednesday

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* The Catholic Church cancels all spousal health benefits within Washington, D.C., in order to avoid giving gay married people benefits. This is the same organization that already threatened to stop all charity in the city if marriage equality became law and which really did shut down its orphanages rather than let gay people adopt. This is what loving your neighbor is all about. Via MeFi.

* I’ve said many times before that health care passes in a vote or dies in silence. If Democrats didn’t think they had the numbers, they wouldn’t bring the bill to the floor. Instead, they’d swear their fealty to the project but turn their attention to other priorities and schedule their speeches on other subjects. But that’s not happening. Democrats are setting up their process, giving speeches and interviews, adding Republican ideas, and setting new deadlines. They’re bringing this to a vote. And that means they’re confident that they’ll win the vote. My inclination is to say not even the Democrats can screw this up, but of course they’ll just take that as a challenge. Here’s more from Jonathan Chait.

* Whales, it turns out, are carbon sinks.

* Mitt Romney is an all-time gold-medalist flip-flopper. Or, more directly, a liar.

* Bottled water sales fall for the first time in five years. Great!

* Judge Confirmed 99-0 After 124 Day Delay. Ladies and gentlemen, your U.S. Senate.

* And Sarah Palin makes another run at making my brain explode. Keep at it, Madame Governor, you’re almost there…

Wednesday Afternoon Legitimate Complaints

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* NASA reports that the Chilean earthquake has shortened the day by 1.26 microseconds and moved the figure axis of the Earth about 8 centimeters. Google has set up a donation tool for earthquake relief; my Chilean friend Ignacio also recommends a donation to Cruz Roja Chilena. The country is still suffering dramatically; while writing this post I received a news alert about a tsunami warning just issued for the coast, following a huge aftershock.

* DCist profiles the first few couples to file for same-sex marriage licenses in DC. Congratulations, folks!

* Bunning’s temper tantrum had consequences.

* Related: Nineteen senators I would sincerely like to see become unemployed.

* Obama calls for an up-or-down vote on health care: “At stake right now is not just our ability to solve this problem, but our ability to solve any problem.” Mr. President, I have some bad news…

* Rachel Maddow, national treasure.

You are not making serious arguments, and you do not believe what you’re saying. It’s disproven by your record. In the case of Orrin Hatch, you are flat-out lying about the history of the tactic that Democrats are going to use to pass health reform. Doing that, lying about what’s been done, lying about the record, lying about this tactic is not actually a substitute for making an honest argument against health reform.

For the Washington Post to print something like this is bizarre. For these established, supposedly mainstream senators to try to get away with this is an insult to everyone they’re addressing, and to the media, in particular. And for us all to just let this slide and call it ‘politics,’ is to surrender to cynicism profoundly.

* Attackerman: Jewish Narnia Is Called Marvel Comics. More in this at MeFi.

* ABC, let Jon Stewart host This Week.

* Finally, a profile of Rahm Emmanuel sourced by someone other than Rahm Emmanuel:

…Emanuel is not the would-be savior of this presidency. For one thing, there really isn’t that much daylight between him and his boss, or between him and his top White House colleagues. Had things gone even more his way, it’s possible that he would have squelched a few more of what few bursts of idealism and principle survived Inauguration. But people looking for the reasons why the Obama presidency has not lived up to its promise won’t find the answer amid the minor rifts between key players. Nor will they find the answer in how well or poorly this White House has played the game of politics. The fact is that after a campaign that appealed so successfully to idealism, Obama hired a bunch of saboteurs of hope and change.

Rahm was simply their chief of staff. And now, this hypercompetitive bantam rooster is attempting to blame others for what went wrong. That’s evidently so important to him that he’s trying to take a victory lap around the wreckage of what was once such a promising presidency.

Emanuel’s greatest “victory” before this one, of course, was the one upon which he earned his reputation: Getting a bunch of conserva-Dems elected in purple states in 2006, winning the party control of the House while at the same time crippling its progressive agenda. This is what Emanuel is all about. For him, victory is everything — even if you have to give up your core values to win, and even if you could have won while sticking to them.

* OK, I think I finally see the source of all our problems: Americans are totally indifferent to the suffering of others and think nothing bad will ever happen to them. Consider a survey by Yale climate change research scientist Anthony Leiserowitz. The survey asked Americans, “Who will be most harmed by climate change?” Respondents said that climate change would mostly affect:

• Plant and animal species: 45 percent
• Future generations of people: 44 percent
• People in developing countries: 31 percent
• People in other industrialized nations: 22 percent
• People in the United States: 21 percent
• Your local community: 13 percent
• Your family: 11 percent
• You personally: 10 percent

* And Roger Ailes: Judas!

AILES: Well, I don’t think they’re whining over nothing and I think they have — look, there’s legitimate complaints that they could have. And I’ve had this dialogue with David Axelrod, who I like very much and, there are legitimate areas. I mean, Chris [Wallace] said that, that’s his words, that’s what he believes, and he had reason to believe that. But I don’t think its helpful to say that.

Closing! All! My! Tabs!

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* Al Gore is coming to Duke this April.

* Arbitrarily defined political, social, and religious positionalities correlate with a measurement that doesn’t mean anything to prove people like me are smarter than everybody else. Science!

* For the doctors in the audience: A transit map of the human body.

* John Roberts, radical. Via MeFi.

For the past few years, I’ve been giving Roberts the benefit of the doubt, hoping that he meant it when he talked about the importance of putting the bipartisan legitimacy of the Court above his own ideological agenda. But, while Roberts talked persuasively about conciliation, it now appears that he is unwilling to cede an inch to liberals in the most polarizing cases. If Roberts continues this approach, the Supreme Court may find itself on a collision course with the Obama administration–precipitating the first full-throttle confrontation between an economically progressive president and a narrow majority of conservative judicial activists since the New Deal.

* This note shows that the aggregate fiscal expenditure stimulus in the United States, properly adjusted for the declining fiscal expenditure of the fifty states, was close to zero in 2009. While the Federal government stimulus prevented a net decline in aggregate fiscal expenditure, it did not stimulate the aggregate expenditure above its predicted mean. In other words, the federal stimulus primarily covered shortfalls in state budgets; it wasn’t new spending.

* Congratulations, Senate Republicans, on another historic benchmark.

* Another day, another set of outrageous lies from Fox News.

* Another academic career ruined by Facebook?

* Health care, they say, by Easter. Thirty-six Senators now support the reinserting the public option through reconciliation; here’s how they can bring it to a vote. Meanwhile, in the House, Pelosi only needs 216 votes. It’s still being reported that the House will act first.

* Steve Benen has a list of the additional Republican ideas that Obama now wants in the health care bill. I’m certain they now hate these ideas too. Quick, call a summit!

* On Nicole Kidman’s pre-existing conditions.

* When Sartre wrote for Hollywood.

* What Smith and [Stanley] Fish are doing is asking a stupid question — where are the Orders of the Cosmic Dictator? — and failing to note that there seems to be no evidence of a cosmic dictator, and his orders are merely pretenses put up by institutionalized frauds. And then they run about in circles, flailing their arms and screaming at the people who point out that there are no orders.

* How to resign from the Catholic Church.

* Lost landscapes of Detroit.

* A History of Obama Feigning Interest in Mundane Things.

* Globalization, as seen through your taco.

* Rejoice: marriage equality in DC tomorrow.

* And please, leave Indy alone.

Tuesday Miscellany

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* Howard Dean: Kill the Senate bill. Markos Moulitsas: Insurance companies win. Time to kill this monstrosity coming out of the Senate. It falls to poor Matt Yglesias to declare victory. As I suggested earlier, my pragmatist streak will probably push me to support reform no matter how much Lieberman extracts, and Ezra Klein (still under fire for his rude reminder that policy has consequences) and Steve Benen make that pragmatist case here and here. Still, this rankles. I wouldn’t want anyone who matters (quiet, Ezra) to commit the unpardonable sin of being honest, but I’ll personally send Harry Reid a hundred dollars for his reelection if he turns around and uses reconciliation to pass the public option anyway just as soon as the current insurance reforms are passed.

* Much-needed good news: The DC City Council has endorsed marriage equality.

* Bad Astronomer tackles transporter metaphysics.

* More than 65 million years ago, a cataclysmic event drove a majority of the Earth’s species into extinction, and tragically, wiped out the last of the dinosaurs long before bazookas could be invented and used on them. (Thanks Russ!)

* io9 has the series bible for Batman: The Animated Series.

* And dueling reviews of Avatar insist it does and does not suck. (Thanks to Dan for the “suck” version. “Avatar is the corniest movie ever made about the white man’s need to lose his identity and assuage racial, political, sexual and historical guilt.” This I have to see.)

Late Night

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Late night.

* What is the jobless rate for people like you? Post-racial America is awesome. (via)

* Salman Rushdie totally doesn’t know his kryptonite.

* DC caught mishandling its recycling. (via)

D.C. law requires recycling at all city buildings, though the law appears to stop at the threshold of all alleys. There, behind businesses and apartment complexes all across the city, this sloppy ritual goes down with striking regularity: In a blur of asses and elbows, workers throw stuff from green containers, black containers, and blue containers in the same truck, creating a jumble of trash and recycling that can never be de-mingled.

* Behind The Men Who State at Goats. (via)

* Alan, who looks much younger than his 72 years, speaks in a meandering monotone, while Sylvia makes tea. “Sylvia is going to put arsenic in our tea.” It’s an ongoing joke, and one that gets to the nub of their problem. The cryonicists are not dying quickly enough, so the opportunity to hone their skills is limited. (via)

Written by gerrycanavan

November 10, 2009 at 5:14 am

Tuesday Night

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Tuesday night.

* I’ve had to remove the Amazon ads from the sidebar due to Amazon Associates now being taxed in North Carolina. I don’t know yet if I’ll bother replacing them with anything—they weren’t bringing in that much money. Direct donations still of course accepted.

* After something of a slow start with too many hi-I’m-reading-because posts, Infinite Summer is finally starting to heat up with good posts today on IJ and the Kenyon Commencement at Infinite Summer and Infinite Zombies.

* Promo for Dollhouse episode 13. Remember how I said Fred was now positioned to be either the show’s new lead or else next season’s Big Bad?

* Did the failed Watchmen adaptation hurt book sales? Occasional Fish has gathered some links suggesting it might have.

* Letterman couldn’t resist some jokes at Palin’s expense last night.

* New B-movie, coming this fall: They Saved Jackson’s Brain!

* Things you may not have known about the late Robert McNamara: he was the one who told the world about the hydrogen bomb buried in the swamp outside Goldsboro, NC. (Via Dave F.)

* The New Organizing Institute is having a mock election running superheroes for DC mayor. Of course I’ll be voting for Superman, but the Green Lantern‘s wholesale ripoff of the Obama aesthetic gives me pause.

* Also in superhero news: You’re a fun-loving, high-maintenance girl that grew up in a New Jersey suburb. You live close enough to New York City to want the clothes and the cosmopolitan lifestyle, but you’re not brave enough to move away from you over protective parents. What’s a girl to do? If you’re Zoe, you marry the first God of War that crash lands in town during a life or death struggle with his evil adversary! But, what happens when even an all-powerful God can’t exactly measure up to your elevated expectations? Jersey Gods.

* ASCII Portal.

Playing Catchup – 1

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Playing catchup with the day’s news.

* With Caroline Kennedy officially out of the Senate race in New York, WPIX is reporting that Kirsten Gillibrand will be Paterson’s pick. If that’s true, I’m shocked—I would have bet anything that Paterson would pick Andrew Cuomo to neutralize his chief potential rival.

* The Dark Knight: Snubbed!

* At this very moment, miles beneath the surface of the ocean, there is a British nuclear submarine carrying powerful ICBMs (nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles). In the control room of the sub, the Daily Mail reports, “there is a safe attached to a control room floor. Inside that, there is an inner safe. And inside that sits a letter. It is addressed to the submarine commander and it is from the Prime Minister. In that letter, Gordon Brown conveys the most awesome decision of his political career … and none of us is ever likely to know what he decided.”

The decision? Whether or not to fire the sub’s missiles, capable of causing genocidal devastation in retaliation for an attack that would—should the safe and the letter need to be opened—have already visited nuclear destruction on Great Britain. The letter containing the prime minister’s posthumous decision (assuming he would have been vaporized by the initial attack on the homeland) is known as the Last Resort Letter. Via MeFi.

* Related: Did the Soviets really build a doomsday device?

* Having seen Frost/Nixon, I can confirm the film has serious factual problems.

* I can also confirm that the Phillips Collection is a great (and surprisingly large) collection near Dupont Circle.

* That Guardian list of 1000 novels has some siblings: 1000 films, 1000 artworks, 1000 albums.

Written by gerrycanavan

January 23, 2009 at 2:01 am

Photos from the Inauguration

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I’ll have a short piece in the Indy tomorrow about my experience in the crowd at the Mall, so for now I’ll limit myself to a few comments and some photos. We left Arlington a little later than we’d hoped—around 8:30—and so there was really not much chance to get into the Huge Crowd by the reflecting pool. (You can see in one of the photos just about as close as we got—past the Washington Monument there was just no going.) We settled in instead on 17th St NW right at the edge of the road, which turned out to be the perfect spot: not only was it right in front of a screen, but the cops were trying to keep 17th St clear and so no one was able to crowd in front of us.

There was a lot of waiting involved, but it was an amazing experience, if only to see Aretha Franklin belt out the best version of “My Country ‘Tis of Thee” ever (land where my father died—she, too, sings America); to hear the loose live mic going out over the Mall for nearly the entire event; to see hilarious closed-captioning typos like “[CHEESE AND APPLAUSE]” and “♫ Threat ring”; trying to get an “underrated!” chant started after Jimmy Carter’s first appearance; and to hear Rev. Lowry’s show-stopping benediction:

‘Lord, in the memory of all the saints who from their labors rest, and in the joy of a new beginning, we ask you to help us work for that day when black will not be asked to get in back, when brown can stick around… when the red man can get ahead, man; and when white will embrace what is right. That all those who do justice and love mercy say Amen. Say Amen’…

And, you know, Obama. And Obamaniacs. I say this in the article, but it felt like liberation.

Now, of course, the real work begins.

Some of my best photos are of some nearby protesters, which I’ll have a separate post about. But for now, here’s a picture of our basic view:

A few of the people we shared the moment with:

Canadians! Who let them in?

Written by gerrycanavan

January 20, 2009 at 9:18 pm

Monday Midday

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Monday midday.

* Followup on the Google-search climate crisis: Google says it’s just not so. (via)

* The top 11 compounds in your drinking water.

• Atenolol, a beta-blocker used to treat cardiovascular disease

• Atrazine, an organic herbicide banned in the European Union, but still used in the US, which has been implicated in the decline of fish stocks and in changes in animal behaviour

• Carbamazepine, a mood-stabilising drug used to treat bipolar disorder, amongst other things

• Estrone, an oestrogen hormone secreted by the ovaries and blamed for causing gender-bending changes in fish

• Gemfibrozil, an anti-cholesterol drug

• Meprobamate, a tranquiliser widely used in psychiatric treatment

• Naproxen, a painkiller and anti-inflammatory linked to increases in asthma incidence

• Phenytoin, an anticonvulsant that has been used to treat epilepsy

• Sulfamethoxazole, an antibiotic used against the Streptococcus bacteria, which is responsible for tonsillitis and other diseases

• TCEP, a reducing agent used in molecular biology

• Trimethoprim, another antibiotic

So gross. (Via Boing Boing.)

* Johann Hari in Slate considers environmentalism’s great divide: the romantics vs. the rationalists.

* Bruce Springsteen is playing a free concert in DC one day before I get there for the inauguration. There is no justice.

* And Hendrick Herztberg notes in The New Yorker that the Bush years offer, for the first time, a precise measurement of the number of people who can be fooled all of the time: 27%.

The President-elect’s performance can’t fully explain the public’s welcoming view of him. Part of it, surely, reflects an eagerness to be rid of the incumbent. A gangly Illinois politician whom “the base” would today label a RINo—a Republican in Name Only—once pointed out that you can fool some of the people all of the time. We now know how many “some” is: twenty-seven per cent. That’s the proportion of Americans who, according to CNN, cling to the belief that George W. Bush has done a good job. The wonder is that this number is still in the double digits, given his comprehensively disastrous record. During the eight years of the second President Bush, the unemployment rate went from 4.2 per cent to 7.2 per cent and climbing; consumer confidence dropped to an all-time low; a budget surplus of two hundred billion dollars became a deficit of that plus a trillion; more than a million families fell into poverty; the ranks of those without health insurance rose by six million; and the fruits of the nation’s economic growth went almost entirely to the rich, while family incomes in the middle and below declined. What role the Bush Administration’s downgrading of terrorism as a foreign-policy priority played in the success of the 9/11 attacks cannot be known, but there is no doubting its responsibility for the launching and mismanagement of the unprovoked war in Iraq, with all its attendant suffering; for allowing the justified war in Afghanistan to slide to the edge of defeat; and for the vertiginous worldwide decline of America’s influence, prestige, power, and moral standing.

(Via Matt Yglesias.)

National Mall as Metaphor

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The National Mall serves as a tragic metaphor for our nation, whose own infrastructure has been left to crumble. The irony is that the way that the National Mall has been allowed to crumble literally in front of the government is like how our nation has slowly crumbled while the government grows in size and power.

Written by gerrycanavan

August 25, 2008 at 4:03 am

Chesapeake Regional Liveblogging

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Actual results liveblogging for the Chesapeake Regional. MSNBC doesn’t seem do be doing a live Internet feed tonight, so I’m forced to endure the Clinton News Network feed.

10:05 pm: Like a fool, I went and stayed too long. I think that’s all for me tonight. Another really good night for the Barack Nation, one that I think rewrites a lot of the narrative going into the primary’s home stretch…

9:52 pm: Obama going hard after McCain. Seems like a smart move.

9:45 pm: Obama floats a few new buzzwords: Obamacan, New American Majority…

9:43 pm: “Cynics can no longer say our hope is false…” I’ve been saying for a while now that Hillary is going to regret saying “false hopes” and “reality check” more than anything else she may regret this primary season.

9:38 pm: Obama on.

9:31 pm: CNN calls Maryland for Obama immediately, as expected.

9:29 pm: As best I can tell, Clinton’s sole argument for her candidacy is this universal health care misrepresentation.

…oh wait, she’s got something else. She wants to stop the foreclosure of people’s homes. Obama, of course, delights in foreclosures from the inner sanctum of his giant money bin.

9:12 pm: Clinton says Obama is all hat and no cattle. Fighting words!

Meanwhile, Obama has taken the delegate lead (including superdelegates) even at CNN, which up to now has tried to rig their delegate count for Clinton in just about every way possible.

9:10 pm: I’m told that that Chesterfield County is now fixed. Hillary’s talking now.

8:59 pm: They’re playing Hillary’s entrance music now. Clap clap, point point.

8:58 pm: Carville on CNN reflects the conventional wisdom; Clinton has to win all three of OH, TX, and PA to be the nominee. I’m not convinced she’s the nominee even if she wins all three—at this point it depends on the margins, and I’m not sure she can win them by enough, if she can win them all.

8:55 pm: A reader mails into Michael Crowley about the “ultimate Hillary disaster scenario”:

Could it be that downscale voters are also “low-information” voters when compared with their Volvo-driving broadband-surfing upscale brethren? If so, it would suggest that all it was going to take was a bit of time for the word to get through that Obama is looking like a winner. Wealthier voters may be the leading edge of a wave. Downscale voters may be the ones who catch trends later–and then really give them mass market power. If so, it’s bad news for Senator Clinton going into Ohio and Pennsylvania.

This seems plausible to me, and I think it’s reflected in Al Giordano’s crunching of the exits.

8:45 pm: More interesting numbers: “As of 8:29, with 66% reporting, 465,364 Dem ballot choices vs, 223,601 Rep.” That bodes very well for November. With the right candidate, Virginia could flip.

8:36 pm: Clinton coming on in El Paso in a few minutes. It’s on C-SPAN2; probably will be on other channels too.

8:35 pm: Virginia called for McCain. But Huck will rise again.

8:31 pm: Polling the later states: Obama starting to run away with North Carolina, too…

8:25 pm: MSNBC reports (and Ben Smith elaborates) that Mike Henry, Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, has also just resigned, following Patti Solis Doyle. That’s not a story they wanted in the papers tonight.

8:19 pm: Someone on CNN—didn’t catch the name—says that ideally the voters should decide the result, but “if it’s not clear-cut, the superdelegates may have to step in to decide things.” But this is precisely ass-backwards—the only reason the voter’s decision can’t be clear cut is because of the existence of 700+ superdelegates, which places a total delegate majority out of reach in anything but a blowout.

If there were no superdelegates, Obama would more or less have the nomination sewn up after tonight.

CNN’s been hitting this superdelegate issue over and over tonight, by the way. The Clinton people must think it’s their only chance.

8:15 pm: Looking through the county-by-county results, Jaimee notices something strange: with 96.92% of the precincts reporting, Barack has 12,280 votes in Chesterfield County; Bill Richardson has 11, Hillary has zero. I’m an Obama fan, but that can’t be right, can it? We need electoral reform in this country, very very badly.

8:10 pm: Barack holding onto his 30-point lead in Virgnia, with 45% in, while McCain is holding onto his slim 3% lead thus far.

8:02 pm: Shock! Obama wins D.C.

7:56 pm: A friend writes in with news from the ground in Virginia:

So I just talked to my mother, the yellow-dog Republican (wait–can someone be a yellow-dog Republican? Or is there some other colorful animal for Republicans?), who says she voted today for Obama (as did “everyone [she works] with”) because she figured McCain would definitely win, and she wanted to put in a protest vote against Hillary.

It’s a twisted process, but I have to say, I like the product.

7:50 pm: Via Shankar, Ben Smith has more numbers: Obama wins Latinos, 55-45, I think for the first time. The CNN exits have even worse news for Clinton: the same percentage say Obama is “most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief.”

7:45 pm: My dad writes in to say they’re keeping the polls in Maryland open 90 more minutes. I’ve heard reports of high traffic on the Beltway, so this is probably why—though my experience of Beltway gridlock suggests that 90 minutes won’t nearly be enough. (CNN confirms: traffic problems caused by the bad weather.)

7:45 pm: With 23% in, Obama is leading 61-38, while McCain and Huckabee keep flipflopping. Ben Smith has some more interesting number-crunching at the Politco—Clinton winning Western V.A., Obama taking everything else.

He won white men, with 55 percent. He won religious Catholics, with 54 percent. He got 46 percent of the vote of white Catholics, a group with which some have theorized he’s weak. He won every income category, though his support skews toward the higher brackets. He won women and men.

Clinton’s base of support was white Democrats, who gave her 59 percent of their vote. She also won among whites older than 45, losing younger white voters. But Obama’s strong performance with independent voters made the white vote very close — he got 48 percent to her 51 percent.

Meanwhile, he won 90 percent, the most yet, of the support of black voters.

7:34 pm: CNN reports that Obama won late deciders, but not very late deciders—people who decided in the last 24 hours flipped back to Hillary. I think this is a result we’ve seen elsewhere; very late deciders seem to go with the safe bet, the name they know.

7:25 pm: CNN’s viewers aren’t buying their attempt to spin the superdelegate issue—the emails they’re reading on CNN.com are pretty angry about this.

7:20 pm: Noam Scheiber says “Virginia may almost be a mirror image of New Hampshire: Independents, assuming McCain had the state in the bag, may have decided to participate in what they (mistakenly) believed would be a closer race on the other side.” Makes sense. This is as good a time as any to push my New Hampshire revisionism, namely that the narrow loss in New Hampshire may have saved the Obama campaign by preventing her from the more incompetent members of her staff (*cough* Mark Penn *cough*) as she’d been rumored to be planning. If she’d been able to bring Carville in a month ago, I suspect she’d be doing a whole lot better now.

7:14 pm: Wolf really laying into Kerry on CNN.com Live, basically asking him over and over to promise to vote for Hillary in his capacity as a super “automatic” delegate. Finally Kerry just has to laugh at him.

7:08 pm: Read in the DKos comment thread that “Obama getting the biggest support from whites in any state to date.” That fits with the Fox exits I linked to below; only a 3% difference separating the two in the white vote.

7:01 pm: Fox and CNN both call Virginia for Obama, “twenty-three seconds after the polls close.” Virginia was the only state of the three that people thought Clinton might surprise in, so that’s good news. Of course it’s the margin of victory that really matters here—we need to wait to see how many delegates he’s actually going to snag here.

6:57 pm: CNN teasing results “at the top of the hour.” I like the sound of that.

6:54 pm: Fox’s exit poll demographics are incredible. Obama winning young voters 80-20; winning women; winning seniors

Written by gerrycanavan

February 12, 2008 at 11:36 pm

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Preresults II

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It’s not long until we know for sure, but Drudge’s leaked exit polls show Obama with a 2-1 lead in Virginia and Maryland and a 3-1 lead in DC. (UPDATE: The Republican race looks a whole lot tighter. Can the Huckabee surge continue?) Everyone’s reporting record turnout, which is also a very good sign. Sit tight…

Written by gerrycanavan

February 12, 2008 at 11:30 pm

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+45?

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For what it’s worth, The Field’s Al Giordano—who for my money has had the best state-by-state analysis of anyone these last few weeks—looks at the internals of the last SurveyUSA poll before the Chesapeake Regional and advises us to throw caution to the wind:

Although many are saying that Obama will come out of tomorrow with an extra 25 to 30 delegates over Clinton, The Field thinks it will be closer to 45.

The reason: “Safe” Clinton voters are moving rapidly toward “undecided” and are telling pollsters “might change my mind” and as many Virginians, Marylanders and Washingtonians that came to DC to take jobs with them – sixteen years later – begin to show buyer’s remorse, the jig is almost up.

Obviously, Al has never been a Mets fan. But he makes a good case.

Written by gerrycanavan

February 12, 2008 at 2:41 pm

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Chesapeake Regional

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Some links about the primary, everyone’s favorite discussion topic. (TV will be back soon; this is all almost over.)

* I know more than a few people in DC, Maryland, and Virginia, and I hope these people get out and vote for Obama their conscience for Obama today. The last ARG poll—as I’ve said, not the friendliest poll outfit for Obama—has numbers that look pretty fantastic, not that they mean anything until the real polls close tonight. ARG has Barack in the lead by twenty points in both states, including in key demographics like “men” and “women.” There’s room to be cautiously optimistic here.

* The front page of the New York Times today paints the picture of a Clinton campaign in crisis:

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.

This of course is what I’ve been saying all along—the superdelegates are politicians, they aren’t going to cut their own throats and the throat of the Democratic party writ large. If Obama is ahead in pledged delegates, he’ll be the nominee.

Hopefully he can get a win in OH, TX, or PA, though—a win in any of those three would seal it.

* Josh Patashnik succinctly explains at the Plank why the Florida delegates must not be seated.

* CNN’s Political Ticker has a post up that backs up my latest theory about what Al Gore is waiting for. Thanks Neil.

The sources say Gore talks with both Clinton and Obama, and is on good terms with both. But with Sen. John Kerry and Bill Clinton both aligned to a candidate, Gore has a role to serve as the neutral elder statesman in the party.

If an agreement needs to be struck between Clinton and Obama down the road, Gore is in position to be the likely facilitator of that discussion.

Written by gerrycanavan

February 12, 2008 at 1:57 pm