Posts Tagged ‘veepstakes’
Surprise Sunday Links! Watch Out!
* The route Google Maps recommends if you’re headed to Ferrum College from the west involves what may be the loneliest and most roller-coaster-like stretch of roadway ever to earn a state route number from Virginia. It’s a narrow ribbon of pavement with no center line, a twisting trail you drive imagining that if you go over the edge, weeks could pass before anyone found the wreckage. Only at the other end do you spot a yellow sign that reads, “GPS Routing Not Advised.” Small, Rural Colleges Grapple With Their Geography.
* A friend recommended the short Cuban SF novel Super Extra Grande to me, which I liked a lot. Some profiles on the author: 1, 2.
* Horrific terror attack at historic Orlando gay night club leaves 20 dead.
* Scientists think they’ve figured out the Antikythera Mechanism.
* In search of Cervantes’s grave.
* Old and busted: AI. New hotness: IA.
* Landscaping in the Anthropocene.
* As an added experiment, the researchers applied their model to the current distribution of human populations on Earth. They found that, under all the same assumptions, 12.5 percent of the global population would be forced to migrate at least 1,000 kilometers, and up to a third of the population would have to move more than 500 kilometers.
* In a paper published in the May issue of the journal Astrobiology, the astronomer Woodruff Sullivan and I show that while we do not know if any advanced extraterrestrial civilizations currently exist in our galaxy, we now have enough information to conclude that they almost certainly existed at some point in cosmic history.
…what our calculation revealed is that even if this probability is assumed to be extremely low, the odds that we are not the first technological civilization are actually high. Specifically, unless the probability for evolving a civilization on a habitable-zone planet is less than one in 10 billion trillion, then we are not the first.
* Twitter must fix this. Its brand is increasingly defined by excessive harassment.
* More on The 7-1/2-Hour O.J. Simpson Doc Everyone Will Be Talking About This Summer.
* Because poetry is considered so small, so irrelevant, it’s tempting for poetry critics to look for the BIG themes in poems to demonstrate that poetry matters. I continue to learn from critics who take on this labor. However, because ALL African literary criticism is assumed to matter the more it focuses on the BIG SOCIOPOLITICOECONOMICDISASTERTHATISAFRICA, I am inclined to turn to quieter moments—spaces for the intimate, the friendly, the quiet, the loving, the depressed, the depressing, grief, and melancholy. I’m drawn to the register that is not the shout, and never the headline. I linger at the quotidian to insist that the African imagination considers livability and shareability.
* For everyone, he claims, is shortchanged when the guiding principle and “key driver” of the institution is no longer thought, but money (ix). Faculty are silenced, yes, by the drive to conformity and homogeneity. But students are also cheated when they are treated simply as “human capital”: “When the university is reduced to the function of preparation for jobs and not for life, life itself gets lost under the jobs” (85). Most broadly and seriously of all, society as a whole suffers as the university abandons its traditional role as “that institution that has a responsibility to counter the incipient violence of natural force” (40). The fate of the university is bound up with the fate of democracy and citizenship at large. If society is to change, and injustice and inequality challenged, we need now more than ever an institution whose role is to be “’critical’ of the existing world state of affairs, dissident with respect to it” (6).
* I sometimes wish tenure were what its enemies believe it is.
* White supremacist PACs and Trump. The stain of Trump. “A GOP senator might vote for Hillary Clinton. Here’s how rare that is.” Trump has underperformed the real estate market by a mere 57% since 1976. Alas, Mitt.
* I’m calling it: Trump will drop out of the race by July 5 at the latest. He will blame the unfair media and political correctness, allude to some wack-ass conspiracy involving Black Lives Matter and/or Hezbollah, and go to his grave telling everyone he knows that if he had stayed in the race, he would’ve beaten Clinton.
* You may be done with your quasi-legal homebrew server, but your quasi-legal homebrew server is not done with you: The FBI has been conducting a criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information for months.
* We narrowed Clinton’s vice-presidential possibilities to 27. Now you pick one. For a long time I’ve thought it definitely be one of the Castro brothers, probably Julian, but Elizabeth Warren has made such a push lately I’ve started to think it could actually be her. Of course you can pick Trump’s too, from such a weak field it includes his own daughter.
* Let me close with a broad statement. In the news you will see some rather hysterical statements about how all bets are off this year. That is true to an extent: on the Republican side, the national party’s positions and their rank-and-file voters’ preferences are far out of whack. In a deep sense, their decision process in 2016 became broken. But that does not mean that opinion is unmeasurable. Far from it. In the aggregate, pollsters still do a good job reaching voters. And voters are still people whose opinions move at a certain speed. To my thinking, polls may be the best remaining way to assess what is happening.
* But just in case: I Spent the 90s Fighting Fascists on the Streets of Warsaw.
* If you’re not sick of these yet: What Hamilton Forgets About Hamilton.
* The gentrification of Sesame Street.
* Review: Warcraft Is The Battlefield Earth Of The 21st Century. Warcraft, Hollywood, And The Growing Importance Of China’s Box Office.
* Because you demanded it! Kevin Smith Says That His Mallrats Sequel Will Be a 10-Part TV Series.
* Same joke but for The Passion of the Christ 2.
* Sixty Million Car Bombs: Inside Takata’s Air Bag Crisis: How the company’s failures led to lethal products and the biggest auto recall in history.
* The case for Lady Stoneheart showing up in season six of Game of Thrones. Let me say I have my doubts.
* What to do if you find a goose than lays golden eggs. Machine Learning: A Flowchart. If you read Kafka’s stories backwards, they all make great kids’ movies.
* And the moral cowards at Wikipedia have moved to suppress my work again.
Meet Paul Ryan
Meet Paul Ryan. 12 Things You Should Know About Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan. Strategically, I really can’t see how a Ryan pick makes much sense. He’s an incredibly easy target, doesn’t change the electoral map in any way (except possibly throwing Florida to Obama), and marries Romney to a much more radical policy agenda than he wants or needs.
If I were Romney I’d have picked a crucial-swing-state veep like Portman, McDonnell, or Rubio for sure. Like Steve Benen says, picking an August is a sign of significant weakness in a candidate.
Nailin’ Palin
Fox News apparently has its marching orders: destroy Sarah Palin.
I heard this live on the Fox Report, Shepard Smith’s show. It was at the end of the show, a report done by Carl Cameron. But apparently the tensions and drama behind the scenes in the McCain Campaign were far, far worse than anyone in the media allowed us to believe.
According to Cameron:
Palin did NOT know Africa was a continent.
She did NOT know who the parties to NAFTA were.
She threw dramatic temper tantrums over bad press.
She refused to prepare for the Gibson or Couric interviews.
UPDATE: TPM’s got the video.
Whatever Happened to Sarah Palin?
‘Whatever happened to Sarah Palin?’ Look for stories with that headline over the next few years—with polling like this Sarah Palin will likely never be a serious candidate for national office ever again. And that’s good news for all of us, in Real and Fake America alike.
The New Yorker has an interesting first-crack in the “Whatever happened to Sarah Palin?” genre this week, actually, with a post-mortem on how McCain ever came to make such a damaging choice.
With just days to go before the Convention, the choices were slim. Karl Rove favored McCain’s former rival Mitt Romney, but enough animus lingered from the primaries that McCain rejected the pairing. “I told Romney not to wait by the phone, because ‘he doesn’t like you,’ ” Keene, who favored the choice, said. “With John McCain, all politics is personal.” Other possible choices—such as former Representative Rob Portman, of Ohio, or Governor Tim Pawlenty, of Minnesota—seemed too conventional. They did not transmit McCain’s core message that he was a “maverick.” Finally, McCain’s top aides, including Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis, converged on Palin. Ed Rogers, the chairman of B.G.R., a well-connected, largely Republican lobbying firm, said, “Her criteria kept popping out. She was a governor—that’s good. The shorter the Washington résumé the better. A female is better still. And then there was her story.” He admitted, “There was concern that she was a novice.” In addition to Schmidt and Davis, Charles R. Black, Jr., the lobbyist and political operative who is McCain’s chief campaign adviser, reportedly favored Palin. Keene said, “I’m told that Charlie Black told McCain, ‘If you pick anyone else, you’re going to lose. But if you pick Palin you may win.’ ” (Black did not return calls for comment.) Meanwhile, McCain’s longtime friend said, “Kristol was out there shaking the pom-poms.”
McCain had met Palin once, but their conversation—at a reception during a meeting of the National Governors Association, six months earlier—had lasted only fifteen minutes. “It wasn’t a real conversation,” said the longtime friend, who called the choice of Palin “the fucking most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.” Aides arranged a phone call between McCain and Palin, and scrutinized her answers to some seventy items on a questionnaire that she had filled out. But McCain didn’t talk with Palin in person again until the morning of Thursday, August 28th. Palin was flown down to his retreat in Sedona, Arizona, and they spoke for an hour or two. By the time he announced her as his choice, the next day, he had spent less than three hours in her company.
Meanwhile, Palin is back in the news today with a revealing flub demonstrating that she either (still) has no idea what the vice president does or has a vision of expanded powers for the VP that rivals even Cheney’s.
VP Debate Liveblogging
10:30 PM Biden ends with a strong assertion of Barack Obama’s readiness and then his usual closing about “God blessing out troops.” And that’s it. I’ll be back in a few minutes with reactions.
10:29 PM Palin likes being able to answer these “tough questions.” Oh, give me a break.
10:21 PM Palin talks about mavericks again. Sweet Caroline actually threw up on my floor. This looks *really* bad against Biden’s answer about his kids and the kitchen table answer—this is the answer where she lost this debate.
10:20 PM Biden dodges the Achilles heel question too after a joke. Biden’s breaking up a little bit talking about his kids.
10:18 PM Gov. Palin, what is your Achilles heel? Answer: “I am awesome.” What?
10:17 PM: Bad news for Palin, Biden knows what the Constitution actually says about the vice president. Good news for Palin: No follow-ups.
10:17 PM: Biden thinks Cheney is a douche.
10:14 PM Palin is interpreting the Constitutional powers of the vice president. She claims to agree with Cheney, but she’s just trying to talk her way out of this question.
10:13 PM Ezra’s having the same problem I’m having:
10:03 Sarah-Palin-as-Tina-Fey-as-Sarah-Palin says “it’s just so clear I’m a Washington outsider” then she tilts her head and smiles and shrugs and accuses Joe Biden of being “for it before being against it” and says “the American people are craving some of that straight talk.” With Palin, we have left the age when satire ruled comedy and entered a period in which reenactment reigns supreme.
10:12 PM: Now Palin’s talking about elementary school teaching? How the hell did we get here?
10:10 PM Her answer to the question of what she would do if John McCain died devolved to a repetition of her first answer on taxes and government-being-the-problem. That was weird. Now Palin drops a planned line: “Say it ain’t so, Joe, there you go again,” but she flubs it, and the whole thing is just weird.
Why did Ifill ask a question about assassination?
10:09 PM Palin answers the assassination question with a smile. Jaimee says, “She can’t wait.”
10:08 PM Ifill drops the assassination bomb. Skirting the line there, Ifill. Kendra is visibly shaken.
10:06 PM Those little ums and pauses at the start of her answers are getting longer and longer.
10:04 PM Ambinder: 10:02: Palin gets the name of the commander general in Afghanistan wrong: he’s McKiernan, not McClellan. She does not know who he is, clearly.
10:00 PM Interventionism. Palin calls Biden a flip-flopper. She is reading from a piece of paper.
9:58 PM Biden: “Facts matter, Gwen.”
9:56 PM Palin’s pretty obviously reading from her notes here. I hope somebody’s getting clips of this. (Debate Hub is still the best application for this in the world.) (UPDATE: Here.)
9:55 PM Do you know what I like about best about Sarah Palin? The generalities. I can’t believe there’s 35 more minutes of this. At least Biden is killing on the “more of the same” line: “I don’t know how his policy is going to be different from George Bush’s.”
9:54 PM Ezra Klein: “9:52: Like John McCain, Sarah Palin is firmly against a second Holocaust. The silence of the Obama/Biden ticket on this issue is deafening.”
9:51 PM Biden drops the Spain-bomb.
9:50 PM There’s a little bit of shouting at the TV in my house right now.
9:49 PM Dictators hate our freedoms. Check.
9:48 PM Palin calls Obama naive and dangerous, but unlike John McCain she can say “Ahmadinejad” on the first try.
9:45 PM Biden is doing really well on Pakistan and terror. Palin tells us to trust al Qaeda when it says that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror. Trust al Qaeda? Really, Governor? That’s not change we can believe in.
9:43 PM Biden: “John McCain voted against funding the troops.” “John McCain and Dick Cheney said…” “John McCain has been dead wrong.” Good answer, Joe.
9:42 PM Democrats want to wave the white flag of surrender in the face of “the Talibani.”
9:41 PM Biden says what Obama should have said last week: John McCain is the only one who doesn’t want to leave.
9:40 PM Here comes the surge. Palin tries to pit Biden against Barack by reading his own words to him. That’s good note-carding.
9:38 PM Biden wins the gay marriage dispute, but only on points.
9:36 PM Biden keeps getting in the last word. That’s good stuff. Next question: gay marriage. Biden just came out very strongly in favor of marriage equality, though he tries to dial it back a bit at the end of the sentence and begins to crouch it in Constitutional terms. Palin chooses to insist that she’s tolerant and mentions that some of her best friends are gay.
9:32 PM Biden: “If you don’t understand what the cause is, you can’t come up with a solution.” Right.
9:30 PM Drill, baby, drill. Here comes climate change. Palin doesn’t want to argue about the causes—didn’t Jon Stewart decimate this line last night?
9:29 PM Michael Crowley is on Palin note-watch.
The camera behind Palin’s podium just caught her furiously (but discreetly) shuffling papers as Gwin Ifill was asking her question; and Palin took at least one glance down midway. Something to keep an eye on over the next 90 minutes.
9:26 PM Tim gets a gleam in his eye when she uses one of her catchphrases: “rears its head.”
9:25 PM Biden is taking a “There you go again” tack. It seems to be working, at least where I’m sitting.
9:23 PM I just noticed her flag pin. I think it’s Bejeweled. Meanwhile, Palin’s off on energy. Then she admits that she’s only been at this for five weeks—that was a weird line.
9:22 PM Marc Ambinder: I just got 5 fact-check e-mails from the Obama campaign…can’t look at ’em all when they arrive at once.
9:19 PM Biden kills on it, uses his first punchline: “I call that the ultimate Bridge to Nowhere.” But he really does need that eyelid lift.
9:18 PM $5,000 tax credit issue. Palin bungles it badly, Biden smells blood.
9:18 PM Biden loves the middle class. Kendra says he needs an eyelid lift, and you know, she’s right. Palin is turning into Tina Fey before our eyes.
9:14 PM Things are blowing up already. Biden says she didn’t answer the question, Palin says she’ll answer the questions the way she wants. Biden’s walking a fine line on the “don’t be a bully” issue, but it looks like he’s not interested in treating Palin with kid gloves.
9:13 PM Now we need to learn to live with less, says Palin. That’s change we can believe in.
9:12 PM Palin drops another “darn right.” Folksy!
9:12 PM Biden goes after McCain, deregulation, and the cost to blow up your gas tank.
9:10 PM The sub-prime lending meltdown. Who was at fault? Palin blames the predatory lenders. Now she’s telling us not to live in debt. Interesting lecture from a millionaire.
9:08 PM Everyone in the room is enjoying Palin’s winks. Sweet Caroline says, “I can’t believe she’s flirting with us.”
9:05 PM That’s it? They don’t get to talk back and forth at all? That’s ridiculous.
…okay, Biden doesn’t want to let that be the rule. Good on him.
9:04 PM The bailout. So far Joe Biden has not said anything stupid, mission accomplished. Palin does okay too.
9:00 PM Here we go. Olbermann is comparing Biden-Palin to the Patriots-Giants last January. I thought this guy was supposed to be on our side.
8:36 PM My band is now fully assembled: I’ve got Tim, Kendra, and Sweet Caroline here on backup.
8:14 PM TPM Understatement of the Night: For the McCain camp to be conceding that the must-win battleground is comprised of red states, some of which Obama holds leads in, and that two states that haven’t voted Dem in decades are now real battlegrounds, doesn’t seem like a very strong position at all.
8:04 PM How crazy is America c. 2008 that shooting a man in the face isn’t the worst thing Cheney has done?
8:02 PM Pre-spin watch: Palin to attack Biden?
Sarah Palin plans to go on the attack in tonight’s debate, hitting Joe Biden for what she will call his foreign policy blunders and penchant for adopting liberal positions on taxes and other issues, according to campaign officials involved in prepping her for tonight’s showdown.
7:57 PM Some might ask why I’m starting my VP debate liveblogging an hour before the debate actually begins. Because I forgot Missouri was in the central time zone I’m a maverick, that’s why.
I’ll repeat what I said the other morning:
I’m reserving judgment on the debate until I actually see it. It’s very hard to say how the expectations game is going to work; traditionally, the candidate perceived as unimpressive benefits from asymmetric expectations and thereby “wins,” and in that sense Palin can’t lose. But I’m not sure there’s ever been a candidate as manifestly unprepared as Sarah Palin—and basically any mistake she makes, even relatively trivial ones, will serve to ratify the Tina-Fey caricature that has achieved critical cultural mass. In that sense she can’t win. So I have no idea what’s going to happen.
I still have no idea what’s going to happen. I think Biden will do fine—he’s an old hand at this, and well-aware of the pitfalls. The sole question is whether Palin can fake it on substantive questions for several minutes at a clip, whether Ifill will let her get away with it, and whether Biden will be able to call her out on it without looking like a jerk.
It’s a low bar, but seeing her on Couric, I’m genuinely not sure she can cross it. Here’s hoping for an implosion.
Couric and Ifill
The much-hyped Supreme Court section of the Katie Couric interview aired a few hours ago, and it’s just as cringe-inducing as anticipated.
COURIC (to Palin): Why, in your view, is Roe v Wade a bad decision?
PALIN: I think it should be a states issue not a federal government — mandated — mandating yes or no on such an important issue. I’m in that sense a federalist, where I believe that states should have more say in the laws of their lands and individual areas. Now foundationally, also, though, it’s no secret that I’m pro life that I believe in a culture of life is very important for this country. Personally that’s what I would like to see further embraced by America.
COURIC (to Palin): Do you think there’s an inherent right to privacy in the Constitution?
PALIN: I do. Yeah, I do.
COURIC: the cornerstone of Roe v Wade
PALIN: I do. And I believe that –individual states can handle what the people within the different constituencies in the 50 states would like to see their will ushered in in an issue like that.
COURIC: What other Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?
PALIN: Well, let’s see. There’s –of course –in the great history of America rulings there have been rulings, that’s never going to be absolute consensus by every American. And there are–those issues, again, like Roe v Wade where I believe are best held on a state level and addressed there. So you know–going through the history of America, there would be others but–
COURIC: Can you think of any?
PALIN: Well, I could think of–of any again, that could be best dealt with on a more local level. Maybe I would take issue with. But you know, as mayor, and then as governor and even as a Vice President, if I’m so privileged to serve, wouldn’t be in a position of changing those things but in supporting the law of the land as it reads today.
Transcendentally bad. But Matt makes the point that Palin’s Couric problem has come from the fact that Couric asks follow-up questions—indeed, that she is gently insistent on getting a substantive answer to every follow-up—and that Ifill will have far less opportunity to do the same tomorrow, especially given the last-minute criticism of Ifill’s long-announced book:
Meanwhile, if you watch Palin’s interviews you’ll see that she’s perfectly capable of parrying an initial question with some nonsense and then shifting to her pre-prepared talking points. What was so devastating about the Katie Couric interview is that Couric would gently — very gently — prod Palin with follow-ups that revealed she doesn’t know anything about anything. But with this cloud of suspicion hanging over her, Ifill will probably treat Palin with kid gloves and she’ll be able to turn in the sort of competent performances she offered on the Hugh Hewitt and Sean Hannity shows.
For this reason I want to remind everyone that a Palin meltdown is by no means guaranteed tomorrow—it depends on her ability to spontaneously improvise non-answers to tough questions and Ifill and Biden’s willingness to let those non-answers stand. Biden in particular is in a tough spot—he can’t allow himself to look like a bully, which means he’ll either have to point out that she’s speaking nonsense very carefully, with kid gloves, or else hope the comparison speaks for itself.
So Palin may muddle through with nonsense, or she may completely implode. We won’t know till it happens.
Couric & Palin
The fringe theory that John McCain’s campaign suspension gimmick was designed purely to distract attention from Palin’s interview with Katie Couric gains some credibility with the previews CBS is putting out: Palin on Russia and Palin on the bailout. This is just ridiculous—for one, you can see her look at her notes in the bailout clip, and two, what she’s saying doesn’t make any damn sense at all.
That’s why I say I, like every American I’m speaking with, were ill about this position that we have been put in. Where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy. Um, helping, oh, it’s got to be about job creation, too. Shoring up our economy, and getting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions, and tax relief for Americans, and trade — we have got to see trade as opportunity, not as, uh, competitive, um, scary thing, but one in five jobs created in the trade sector today. We’ve got to look at that as more opportunity. All of those things under the umbrella of job creation.
Ready on Day 1.
Afternoon News
Afternoon news.
* The Rick Davis lobbying revelation is the big campaign story today as the McCain camp struggles to find some way to respond. The indispensable Steve Benen dissects their first attempt here, with this succinct summary of why this matters:
Remember, the McCain campaign walked right into this one, insisting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were largely responsible for the Wall Street crisis, and any associations between a candidate and officials at the lending companies are necessarily scandalous.
Talk about leading with one’s chin….
More at HuffPo and TPM, which notes that Davis “quietly canceled” a scheduled lunch with reporters today.
* A report from the Pew Center says that cell-phone-only voters are not being properly counted in the polls. And Marist’s poll of swing states has Obama sweeping the map: IA, NH, OH, PA, and MI, where he has (according to this one poll with a high margin of error) a nine-point lead.
* Kos says the Palin pick is already paying unexpected dividends, as if McCain had been more responsible he probably would have picked Romney.
But think, what if McCain had picked Mitt Romney as his veep choice, like so many of us were fervently hoping?
Sure, the rollout wouldn’t have give McCain a fraction of the attention and excitement that Palin generated. The GOP ticket’s (now evaporated) post-convention bump would’ve been smaller, and maybe Romney would’ve been less effective at revving up the fundy base.
But right now? Romney would be kicking ass. The media would treat him with deference as an economic expert, and let’s be honest, he does looks straight out of central casting for the role of “serious businessman who we should defer to on the economy”. McCain wouldn’t have to hide him. Romney could make the media rounds, being taken seriously no matter what GOP gibberish he spouted. Rather than flail and cower, a McCain/Romney ticket would look sure-footed and confident, projecting gravitas in a time of uncertainty.
What’s more, McCain would no longer look like a political opportunist in his VP choice. He’d be lauded for being such a “maverick”, picking his greatest primary rival. The GOP and its apologists could say, with a straight face, that McCain put “country first”, and actually get away with it since it’s obvious McCain personally loathes Romney.
Good thing Mittens was snubbed.
* Also at Kos, Meteor Blades argues that the Congressional Democrats’ myriad failures on energy this seession are not as bad as all that.
Hurrah! What a relief. This summer’s rush to remedy 27 years of bad energy policy in just a few weeks had generated a mish-mash of contradictory proposals that couldn’t possibly be fully discussed or vetted. Better to wait, as I’ve said from the get-go.