Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘UEFA Euro 2008

UEFA 2008 Final

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European Championship final today at 2:30 on ABC. Germany vs. Spain—should be a solid match. I get the sense that Spain is probably the favorite, but I don’t know—I think with Spain’s top scorer out to injury they’ll have more trouble with the solid German side than people think. Fabregas is a good substitute, but he’s both young and recovering from injuries himself—I know from my U.K. fantasy football league that he hasn’t quite been the same since an injury and surgery mid-season.

So, prediction: Germany for the upset. That’s my gut feeling. And it looks like that’s what I’ll be rooting for, a little bit despite myself.

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June 29, 2008 at 1:56 pm

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UEFA 2008 Semis

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After an incredible quarterfinals stage the European Championship moves to the semis.

Wednesday 6/25 @ 2:30 EST

Germany vs. Turkey

Like everyone else, I’ve counted Turkey out over and over again, and having been wrong so many times already I’m reluctant to count them out now—but with so many top players suspended during their squeaker victory against Croatia it’s really hard to see how they can top a tough team like Germany.

Thursday 6/26 @ 2:30 EST

Spain vs. Russia

Russia got incredibly lucky against the Dutch in the quarters; I’d be shocked if they got that lucky again.

Spain vs. Germany looks like the final to me.

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June 22, 2008 at 10:24 pm

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Russia!

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Obviously I’ve got to stop making predictions: Russia just topped the heavily favored Dutch side, making me 0-3. So many upsets—what a tournament.

I want to say that the advance of Russia and Turkey is good news for Germany and who ever wins the Spain/Italy game tomorrow, but who knows—after watching Turkey work miracles three games in a row, it’s tough to bet against them now…

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June 21, 2008 at 9:02 pm

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UEFA Euro 2008 Quarterfinals

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Quick and dirty predictions for the European Championship Quarterfinals, starting tomorrow:

Thursday @ 2:45 EST, Portugal vs. Germany

Hated Portugal is the favorite here. Go Germany!

Friday @ 2:45 EST, Croatia vs. Turkey

Turkey scraped by Czech Republic to get here, and this is probably the end of their road. But go Turkey nonetheless.

Saturday @ 2:45 EST, Netherlands vs. Russia

The Netherlands, who I’m hoping to be rooting for in the finals, beats Russia pretty handily.

Sunday @ 2:45 EST, Spain vs. Italy

If we don’t see Netherlands in the finals, it’s because Spain beats them next week. Sorry Justin, I think the Spainards take this one.

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June 19, 2008 at 3:53 am

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Turkey vs. Czech Republic

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Is anyone watching Turkey vs. Czech Republic? With 3 minutes to go the world’s best goalie bungled an easy catch to let Turkey tie the game, then Turkey came back a minute later and got another one past him. Amazing. My bracket is smashed over this, but what a finish.

UPDATE: Czech Republic *almost* equalizes a minute into penalty time, and the Turkish goalie gets a red card. With all substitutions used Turkey has to use a non-goalie to cover the position…

UPDATE 2: …but it’s not enough. Turkey wins! Czech Republic breaks my heart again, but Turkey earns their spot in the quarterfinals. Petr Cech looks devastated. Man.

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June 15, 2008 at 8:36 pm

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UEFA 2008 Scenarios

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With only one game remaining in each of the UEFA 2008 groups, it’s time to crunch the numbers on advancement.

GROUP A: Sunday @ 2:45 PM EST
Switzerland (0) vs. Portugal (6)
Turkey (3) vs. Czech Republic (3)

With Portugal sure to advance and Switzerland mathematically eliminated, the game to watch here is obviously Turkey vs. the Czech Republic, the winner of which will join Portugal in the next round. (In the event of a tie, penalty kicks will determine the winner.)

I hope it’s the Czech, and my gut says it will be.

GROUP B: Monday @ 2:45 PM EST
Poland (1) vs. Croatia (6)
Austria (1) vs. Germany (3)

Croatia will definitely advance. Germany will advance if they win or draw, which I’d say is very likely. If Germany loses, things get interesting:

* Austria qualifies if they beat Germany and Poland fails to beat Croatia.
* If Austria beats Germany, Poland beats Croatia and:

* Austria’s goal difference in their game is equal to or better than Poland’s goal difference in their game, then Austria qualifies due to having a better goal difference than Poland in all group games.
* Austria’s goal difference in their game is more than one goal worse than Poland’s goal difference in their game, then Poland qualifies due to having a better goal difference than Austria in all group games.
* Austria’s goal difference in their game is exactly one goal worse than Poland’s goal difference in their game and:
o Austria scores more goals than Poland, then Austria qualifies due to having scored more goals than Poland in all group games.
o Poland scores more goals than Austria, then Poland qualifies due to having scored more goals than Austria in all group games.
o Austria and Poland score the same number of goals, then Poland qualifies due to having earned a better UEFA coefficient in the qualifying matches of the FIFA World Cup 2006 and Euro 2008.

I’ll be pulling for the Austrian upset, but my money’s still on a German win.

GROUP C: GROUP OF DEATH: Tuesday @ 2:45 pm
Netherlands (6) vs. Romania (2)
France (1) vs. Italy (1)

The Netherlands has put the so-called Group of Death to shame in already locking up a first-place finish. The France-Italy World Cup rematch should be both exciting and determinative of the group results—though I’d say there’s a fair chance Romania (which has generally played well) could take a surprise win against a Dutch side with little incentive to try hard.

I tend to like the Dutch, but I’d really like to see Romania advance over both France and Italy.

GROUP D: Wednesday at 2:45 pm
Spain (6) vs. Greece (0)
Russia (3) vs. Sweden (3)

Spain is guaranteed to advance and outgoing European Champions Greece sure to not—so Russia vs. Sweden should be very exciting. This strikes me as a pretty even match-up, even with Ibrahimovic potentially injured—but Sweden has a slight edge in that they advance on goals in the case of a draw.

Due to scheduling conflicts, I haven’t been able to pay as much attention to Group D as I have to the others, but I’ll be pulling for Sweden just because.

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June 14, 2008 at 9:34 pm

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Soccer Update

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Training has interfered with my ability to watch Euro 2008, to my great sadness—I’ve missed some good upsets, including Croatia over Germany 2-1 and Turkey over Switzerland 1-2. Catching up at Wikipedia and at The Big Picture just isn’t the same.

I’m hoping to catch at least one of the games tomorrow in the continuing saga of the group of death, Group C. I’m looking for a Netherlands upset against France, who I think are sluggish and old—but France is still probably the favorite. Italy shouldn’t have too much trouble against Romania, but the Romanians did hold France scoreless, so we could be surprised there as well…

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June 13, 2008 at 2:36 am

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UEFA Euro 2008 Group D

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I’m a little bit bummed that I miss the Netherlands-Italy upset yesterday. I’m also very bummed that I didn’t pick Netherlands in my online predictions pool like I’d thought about—my league is pretty small and I figured I should play conservatively. Now I’ve paid the ultimate price.

Today’s Group D. All indications are that Spain will cruise to victory against Russia, while Greece and Sweden seem fairly evenly matched. In my online predictions pool I actually picked them to draw, scoreless, but again, I know almost nothing about any of this.

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June 10, 2008 at 1:48 pm

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UEFA Euro 2008 Group C Preview: Group of Death

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Today’s the first day of play for Group C in Euro 2008, which the ESPN announcers are calling the Group of Death. (There’s always one.) France and Italy are the favorites in their games, but Romania and especially the Netherlands have a chance at upsets, and I know I’ll be rooting for both—I haven’t forgiven either Italy or France for 2006.

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June 9, 2008 at 2:16 pm

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UEFA Euro 2008: Group B

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I’m showing up just four minutes late into the first Group B game and Croatia has already scored. Austria’s making its debut appearance as one of the host nations, so it’s reasonable to expect they’re going to get slaughtered.

The afternoon game, Germany v. Poland, might be a little bit closer, but not by much. Germany’s a strong favorite to win the whole thing, so Poland will be lucky to keep it close. Which is really too bad—in any contest between Germany and Poland, it’s pretty hard not to root for Poland…

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June 8, 2008 at 4:05 pm

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Euro 2008: Group A

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11:50 AM EST:
Switzerland vs. Czech Republic
2:30 PM EST:
Portugal vs. Turkey

When I did the World Cup in ’06 my blogging was mostly along a Winners & Losers, Heroes & Villains line, and I think I’ll probably stick with that.

These aren’t that hard to choose on either register. One of my best friends from high school grew up in the “Little Prague” section of Randolph and so Czech Republic was one of the teams I was most rooting for in the World Cup 2006. Though they underperformed a bit in that tournament I think they’re pretty likely to advance in this one. I generally like Switzerland, and I’ll probably be rooting for them in later games, but today it’s all about the Czech.

Portugal vs. Turkey is easy: I have friends from Turkey and Portugal is probably my most hated squad from 2008, what with their constant dirty play and shameless diving. But they’re going to beat Turkey, and they’re also sure to advance, so I’ll be resenting them for a while yet.

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June 7, 2008 at 12:36 pm

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Euro 2008 Starts Today

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Longtime readers know that international soccer is the one sport I really get excited about. I spent a lot of my last summer before Duke blogging pretty obsessively about the World Cup—you can relieve the magic in the June 2006 and July 2006 archives—and so I’m pretty excited that the other quadrennial soccer tournament, UEFA Euro 2008, begins today. As is the case with the World Cup, my knowledge surrounding the European championship is spotty, hilariously incomplete, and primarily keyed to old nationalistic hatreds: that’s part of what makes it so fun.

Most of the games will be aired on ESPN Classic; you can find a good schedule here.
And if you’re really feeling ambitious you can build a fantasy team here and construct your bracket here.

I’m using this program to help me keep track of everything; it’s available for both Mac and Windows.

Some uninformed bloviations about Group A in a little bit…

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June 7, 2008 at 12:20 pm

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