Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘Ted Kennedy

Nothing Bad Ever Happens to the Kennedys

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CNN is reporting that Ted Kennedy has been diagnosed with a brain tumor.

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May 20, 2008 at 5:20 pm

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Morning After Politics Minute

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Noam Scheiber at TNR writes about “the redemption of Ted Kennedy”—as if anyone who was seriously paying attention to this race could have ever denied the big effect Kennedy had and continues to have—as well as echoing the consensus here that John Edwards has plainly missed his moment:

Now that pretty much every last Edwards supporter has decamped for Obama, does anyone think Edwards is getting them back for Hillary? Does anyone think Obama would feel indebted if Edwards were to come his way?

Meanwhile, at TPM, I see that Rudy Giuliani’s campaign managed has given his official seal of approval to the Clinton strategy:

“Clearly, she has had success in larger states and there are a whole bunch of delegates at stake on March 4,” Mr. DuHaime said. “They are not trying to figure out who can win the most states; they are trying to figure out who can win the most delegates.”

John Marshall rightly calls it a kiss of death.

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February 13, 2008 at 1:37 pm

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Endosement News!

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Obama endorsement news! But still not any of the ones were hoping for. California SEIU, once supporting Edwards, is now endorsing Obama, as is MoveOn.org (for the first time in its history) and Seattle’s mayor, Greg Nickels. The big one today is the L.A. Times, endorsing a presidential candidate for the first time since 1972. But the most important media hype of the week may still be Ted Kennedy’s twenty-minute appearance on El Piolín, a Spanish-language radio show which, despite the fact I’ve never heard of it, is the most popular radio show in America, beating Howard Stern and Rush Limbaugh every weekday morning.

Having already gotten two endorsement predictions wrong so far today, I’m not putting any stock in this, but I must say I find the unsourced and unfounded speculation in this comment at Kos about the 70,000 person venue Obama has chosen for his Saturday night rally in St. Louis very interesting…

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February 1, 2008 at 10:22 pm

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Addendum for Bald People Trying to Keep Hope Alive

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Jaimee points me to Al Giordano of The Field’s analysis of the Survey USA California poll, which he says uses an improperly tight likely voter screen that simply doesn’t reflect the massive turnout we’ve been seeing. Properly weighing the results of the poll, he says, it looks a hell of a lot closer:

Clinton 43.2
Obama 42.4

And again, that’s before the bump from either South Carolina or Kennedy has registered.

Take it all with a grain of salt, but keep hope alive. He’s also got more grist for the startling-New-York-upset mill, with a look at the tabloid treatment of the Kennedy endorsement and the Clinton campaign’s subsequent Spanish-language ad blitz there. He’s also hinting rather strongly that the Obama campaign has an ace up its sleeve for tonight…

GRASPING-AT-STRAWS UPDATE: And why is the Clinton camp canceling scheduled conference calls and TV appearances?

ALSO: Josh Marshall cryptically writes that there is “already chatter” that the seating of the Michigan and Florida delegates may go to court. I’ve written before, as recently as half an hour ago, that this situation is a disaster waiting to happen. The only good thing about it going to court is that we’ll have an answer well before the convention—that, and the fact that the Clintons will get a lot of “Sore Loserman” press over suing the DNC while Obama, if he’s smart, will float nicely above the fray.

Written by gerrycanavan

January 29, 2008 at 9:08 pm

Obamaptimism

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In all the hoopla surrounding South Carolina and the Kennedy endorsement, it’s tough to remember that Obama is still heading into Super Duper Tuesday at a significant disadvantage, especially in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey. (Note: as of 2 PM on 1/29 the charts on polllster.com haven’t taken South Carolina and the possible Kennedy bump into consideration yet.) But there’s reason to be hopeful—the latest Survey USA poll has him down 11 points, 49 to 38, up from 15 points down two weeks ago and 30 points down in December. Nor have the polls been especially reliable this time around; the likely voter models haven’t really been reliable in any state, most recently and most notably in South Carolina, where a twelve-point projected victory turned into twenty-eight points.

The always reliable Douchebag of Liberty Bob Novak writes in the Washington Post today that Clinton’s lead in California may be significantly softer than it looks:

Clinton’s double-digit lead in California polls over Sen. Barack Obama is misleading. Subtract a Latino voting bloc whose dependability to show up on Election Day always has been shaky, and Clinton is no better than even here, with Obama gaining.

The poll’s demographics are more important. Clinton has dramatically lost support among blacks, now trailing Obama 58 percent to 24 percent. It is a virtual dead heat among white non-Hispanics, 32 percent to 30 percent. The 12-point overall lead derives from a 59 percent to 19 percent Clinton edge among Latinos.

In California, the Latino vote is notoriously undependable in actual voting, especially when compared with African American turnout.

Novak also notes that independents (who can only vote in the Democratic primary in California) and young voters (who are notoriously unpredictable) are two additional wild cards that may work in Obama’s favor.

In the New York Times, David Brooks echoes the thoughts of a lot of people when he writes that “something fundamental has shifted in the Democratic party”:

Then, in the speech’s most striking passage, he set Bill Clinton afloat on the receding tide of memory. “There was another time,” Kennedy said, “when another young candidate was running for president and challenging America to cross a New Frontier.” But, he continued, another former Democratic president, Harry Truman, said he should have patience. He said he lacked experience. John Kennedy replied: “The world is changing. The old ways will not do!”

The audience at American University roared. It was mostly young people, and to them, the Clintons are as old as the Trumans were in 1960. And in the students’ rapture for Kennedy’s message, you began to see the folding over of generations, the service generation of John and Robert Kennedy united with the service generation of the One Campaign. The grandparents and children united against the parents.

Matt Yglesias and his commentators even offer some slim hope for a close finish in New York City and State, albeit with a possible assist from the Good Lord himself:

A big icestorm upstate and a light rainstorm in the city on Feb 5 could be very good for Obama. Remember there is no early voting in NYS. To vote absentee you have to specify a reason why you can’t make it to the polls.

All I’m trying to say is this: Keep hope alive, bald people.

Written by gerrycanavan

January 29, 2008 at 7:57 pm

Monday Night Links

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Monday night and the feeling’s right.

* If you haven’t been back to the now-infamous Statue of Liberty post, I’ve updated it about twelve times with a ton of new images. According to Google Analytics, that page’s been viewed over 26,000 times, which is pretty incredible.

* BarackObama.com has video of the Ted Kennedy endorsement, which looks to be an even bigger deal than I’d hoped.

* Schlumberger, the oil-field-services giant that has acquired microwave technology intended to free petroleum from oil shale, won’t bring the technique to western Colorado immediately.

The Green River Formation of western Colorado, eastern Utah and southwest Wyoming contains the equivalent of an estimated 1.8 trillion barrels of crude oil, enough, Raytheon said, to meet current U.S. demand for 250 years. We’re saved!

* And it’s a good thing too; today is the 50th anniversary of history’s greatest invention, LEGO, which like everything else is made from sweet, sweet oil.

* Look upon my works, ye mighty, and despair: the desert reclaims the town of Kolmanskop in Namibia. Via grinding.be.

Written by gerrycanavan

January 28, 2008 at 10:56 pm

The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die

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As Democrats we recognize that each generation of Americans has a rendezvous with a different reality. The answers of one generation become the questions of the next generation. But there is a guiding star in the American firmament. It is as old as the revolutionary belief that all people are created equal, and as clear as the contemporary condition of Liberty City and the South Bronx. Again and again Democratic leaders have followed that star and they have given new meaning to the old values of liberty and justice for all.

We are the party—We are the party of the New Freedom, the New Deal, and the New Frontier. We have always been the party of hope. So this year let us offer new hope, new hope to an America uncertain about the present, but unsurpassed in its potential for the future.

Ted Kennedy’s concession speech at the Democratic National Convention, 1980. Here’s YouTube. (Via.)

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January 27, 2008 at 4:59 pm

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