Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘premature victory laps

Wednesday Links: Breaking Bad, Divine Justice, Fake Vaccines, and More

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* Just got an email alert from CNN: there appear to have been another set of terror attacks in Mumbai. Very sad news.

* Drug trials in Africa show two AIDS prevention drugs are apparently successful in preventing the spread of the disease.

* And the inevitable dark reflection of the previous link: The headline reads, “CIA used a fake vaccination campaign in hunt for Bin Laden.”

* Justice is sweet: News Corp. has lost $7B in the last four days, shareholders are furious, and Lautenberg is joining the call for DOJ and SEC investigations into Murdoch’s empire.

* ThinkProgress: Meet The Indonesian Workers Who Make Your Nikes.

* Reduce the deficit by stopping building pointless superweapons we can never use.

* Premature victory lap watch: Obama for America raked in $86 million for the last quarter, crushing the GOP. The bulk of the money came from small donors.

* Chuck Klosterman: Why AMC’s Breaking Bad beats Mad MenThe Sopranos, and The Wire.

* And RSA Animate explains why there’s no empathy in Heaven, or in Utopia:

GOP Outmaneuvered, Raising the White Flag?

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The harsh words I had for Obama in the previous post may have to be revisited if this report from TPM is accurate: But Senate Minority Leader has just suggested the GOP will give President Obama his debt limit increase without any spending cuts with a legislative maneuver that in essence allows Republicans to say it’s all Obama’s fault.

UPDATE: Grassroots and activist conservatives are freaking out, but elites (Grover Norquist!) are on board.

UPDATE 2: David Kurtz: Time for Obama to declare victory.

The Republicans via Mitch McConnell just balked in an epic, paradigm-shifting way that could finally shift the long-moldering debate on fiscal policy. The debt ceiling negotiations have revealed one of the bedrock foundational elements of the GOP platform — spending cuts are the only way to balance the budget — to be built on the shifting sands of political expediency.

Obama needs to quickly move to declare victory in this thirty-year debate on taxes. Do it now, with the biggest, wickedest grin he can muster while Republicans are in disarray fighting amongst themselves.

The curtain has been pulled back. The wizard has been revealed as a small insecure man. But in Washington no one will acknowledge even a seminal moment unless you grab ahold of it and declare it as such.

Written by gerrycanavan

July 12, 2011 at 2:51 pm

Select Links While I’m Away (Part 1)

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Permanent Democratic Majority

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No Democratic incumbent has been voted out of the Senate in the last two cycles, the first time this has been accomplished since the direct election of senators was established in 1908. MyDD asks the obvious question: can the Dems three-peat? The prognosis is good, as only Nevada’s Harry Reid seems especially vulnerable and his state just went blue.

Meanwhile, Salon has tough talk for the GOP.

The painful truth for conservatives is that the dogs aren’t eating their dog food — and every national trend indicates that they will never eat it again. Which means the GOP faces a wrenching choice: remain true to its increasingly irrelevant and rejected ideology and fade into political insignificance, or remake itself as essentially a more moderate version of the Democratic Party.

In the coming years we will witness a war between conservatism’s pragmatists and its true believers. If the pragmatists win, America will have finally arrived at the era of broad political consensus that pundits erroneously forecast after Lyndon Johnson’s demolition of Barry Goldwater in 1964. If the true believers win, we may witness a Palin candidacy in 2012 — and a likely electoral landslide that will bury the GOP so deeply it may never dig out.

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November 11, 2008 at 3:30 am


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The final SurveyUSA polls predict Obama victories in Pennsylvania and Florida, a loss in either of which probably spells the end for John McCain.

PA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
FL: Obama 50%, McCain 47%

Meanwhile, the Huffington Post says “When it comes to predicting elections, head down to your local betting hall and talk to some gamblers. They have a much better record at forecasting elections.” As of right now, the bookies put the odds at a 93-7 Obama advantage…

Written by gerrycanavan

November 4, 2008 at 4:38 am

Prediction Thread

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Predictions. Who’s got them? Leave ’em in the comments.

I was on Poli-Sci-Fi Radio yesterday (podcast forthcoming) and they cajoled us all into making predictions. Unexpectedly, I was among the most optimistic people on the show, expecting Obama to cross 360 electoral votes and over 50% in the popular vote. I stand by this. To the extent that the polls are wrong, I (honestly) believe they will be wrong in our favor, underreporting Obama’s depth of support and his GOTV operation and underestimating the level of Republican demoralization and widespread discomfort, in different registers, with Bush, Palin, and McCain all.

I’ve been predicting / hoping for a Reaganesque landslide since January—it was one of the biggest early factors in my decision to support Obama in the primaries in the first place—and I think that outcome is finally at hand. If things go the way I think / hope they will tomorrow, 2008 will come to be seen as a realignment election along the lines of 1980 or 1932.

If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, and I’ve been very wrong before—but that’s my prediction.

So let’s have two numbers, the EV spread and the popular vote spread. (Use 270towin to calculate the electoral votes.)

I’ll go first with what will surely be way-too-high estimates of 397 EVs and eight points in the popular vote, 52%-44%. In my heart of hearts, I think we’ll run the table, including taking Omaha.

But of course I’ll be just as happy scrapping by with 269…

Sports Determinism Watch

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Sports Determinism Watch: The Phillies only win the Series during realignment elections. That’s not me talking, that’s science.

Written by gerrycanavan

October 30, 2008 at 6:36 pm