Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘permanent Democratic majority

Republican Implosion Watch

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Republican implosion watch: TPM highlights poll results showing the GOP brand continuing to tank even in the few weeks since Election Day. Can the GOP survive Barack Obama? MetaFilter had a nice post a few days ago cataloging the fireworks, including the circular firing squad over Sarah Palin and Kathleen Parker’s Canavanesque suggestion that Republicans give up the oogedy-boogedyism.

Written by gerrycanavan

November 21, 2008 at 4:54 pm

Permanent Democratic Majority

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No Democratic incumbent has been voted out of the Senate in the last two cycles, the first time this has been accomplished since the direct election of senators was established in 1908. MyDD asks the obvious question: can the Dems three-peat? The prognosis is good, as only Nevada’s Harry Reid seems especially vulnerable and his state just went blue.

Meanwhile, Salon has tough talk for the GOP.

The painful truth for conservatives is that the dogs aren’t eating their dog food — and every national trend indicates that they will never eat it again. Which means the GOP faces a wrenching choice: remain true to its increasingly irrelevant and rejected ideology and fade into political insignificance, or remake itself as essentially a more moderate version of the Democratic Party.

In the coming years we will witness a war between conservatism’s pragmatists and its true believers. If the pragmatists win, America will have finally arrived at the era of broad political consensus that pundits erroneously forecast after Lyndon Johnson’s demolition of Barry Goldwater in 1964. If the true believers win, we may witness a Palin candidacy in 2012 — and a likely electoral landslide that will bury the GOP so deeply it may never dig out.

Written by gerrycanavan

November 11, 2008 at 3:30 am

The Blueing of America

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The Blueing of America: Pharyngula has your images of the day, the county-by-county election results and the same map rescaled to reflect population. America’s getting bluer, which can also be seen in Kevin Drum’s comparison of pro-Democratic voting records in 2004 and 2008:

# Income $200,000 or more (+34)
# First-time voters (+33)
# No high school (+27)
# Latinos (+27)
# 18-29 year olds (+25)
# Under $15,000 (+21)
# Full-time workers (+19)
# Urban (+19)
# Non-gun owners (+18)
# Non-religious (+16)
# Parents with children under 18 (+16)

These numbers look good for the future, and the youth numbers are especially important for the reasons I discussed yesterday.

The turnout numbers are getting more and more interesting—it turns out this was a record year for Democratic turnout, not turnout overall. A lot of Republicans just stayed home.

Written by gerrycanavan

November 7, 2008 at 6:30 pm

Image of the Day, Plus Young Voters

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Image of the day: the New York Times‘s map of changing national demographics between 2004 and 2008. At right: a county-by-county map of places that voted more Democratic this year.

As you can see, it’s just about everywhere.

More on demos from The Next Right, which notes with some dismay that “Obama has reshaped the electorate. And it’s been only partially through new voter registration. He has gobbled up every last, existing young voter and African American.” Given the “stickiness” of both voting behavior and party ID, locking up new voters so completely bespeaks the sort of transformational realignment I’ve been hoping we’d see.

Written by gerrycanavan

November 7, 2008 at 2:05 am