Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘John McCain invented the blackerry

The Polls

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Above is a chart from Chris Bowers by way of Matt Yglesias charting the comparative advantages of Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Al Gore over the course of the campaign season. This is an important charts for Democrats who are about to be confronted with something that has long seemed impossible: not just a victory but what looks to be a blowout. For the last fifty days of election 2004, we were never ahead, according to the polls—we just thought we were, having mystified the polls and made faulty assumptions about turnout and the undecided break.

Obama’s situation is quite different, with a nine-point lead in the final NBC/WSJ poll and between nine and eleven points in Gallup. Those numbers would have McCain underperforming Dukakis, and if you believe in Nate Silver’s cellphone effect, the margin could be even larger. This same movement is reflected in the tracking polls—despite persistent claims that “the polls are narrowing,” there’s no real evidence of this.

And Obama has already locked down good margins in the early vote, to all appearances: over 2.5 million people have already voted in North Carolina, including almost half of the state’s African-American population and 44% of registered Democrats. In Colorado and New Mexico in particular, the margins may already be too great to overcome.

What I’m saying is, though there’s still work to be done, this time I really think we actually win.


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Politics, mid-afternoon-style.

* What’s up with McCain’s surrogates today? First they tout a Canadian invention as proof of McCain’s legislative accomplishments, and now Carly Fiorina—who, incidentally, ran HP into the ground while she was running things—says she’d put Palin in the White House, but not in charge of a major company. Not to mention Rove going off-script. Who’s running things over there?

* Another reason not to watch the polls: young people might actually vote this year.

* But there’s at least one reason to watch the polls: graphic proof Palinmania is almost over.

* And people are still talking about McCain’s absurd plan to institute a tax on employer health benefits. Here’s Bob Herbert in the Times, who goes on to link the McCain plan to this week’s banking collapses:

The whole idea of the McCain plan is to get families out of employer-paid health coverage and into the health insurance marketplace, where naked competition is supposed to take care of all ills. (We’re seeing in the Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch fiascos just how well the unfettered marketplace has been working.)

Taxing employer-paid health benefits is the first step in this transition, the equivalent of injecting poison into the system. It’s the beginning of the end.

When younger, healthier workers start seeing additional taxes taken out of their paychecks, some (perhaps many) will opt out of the employer-based plans — either to buy cheaper insurance on their own or to go without coverage.

That will leave employers with a pool of older, less healthy workers to cover. That coverage will necessarily be more expensive, which will encourage more and more employers to give up on the idea of providing coverage at all.

The upshot is that many more Americans — millions more — will find themselves on their own in the bewildering and often treacherous health insurance marketplace. As Senator McCain has said: “I believe the key to real reform is to restore control over our health care system to the patients themselves.”

Obama will clobber him with this in the debates. Look forward to it.

Written by gerrycanavan

September 16, 2008 at 6:30 pm

John McCain Invented the Blackberry

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This just in: John McCain invented the Blackberry.

UPDATE: I’m hearing now the McCain camp has also revealed he was the inspiration for the movie Cocoon. No word yet on Love Canal or how often he’s traveled with former FEMA director James Lee Witt. (Hat tip: my dad.)

Written by gerrycanavan

September 16, 2008 at 4:21 pm

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