Posts Tagged ‘John Kerry’
Wednesday Night Links!
* I had a thread on comics and accessible teaching on Twitter that I found helpful, especially this last contribution.
* Shoot this post into my veins.
Shoot this post into my veins. pic.twitter.com/YNsOgnRAM3
— Detective Pikajew (@clapifyoulikeme) January 22, 2020
* Introducing the Ursula K. Le Guin reread.
* CFP: Speculative Fiction, Curriculum Studies, and Crisis.
* The (Not-So-)Secret Way to Attract Majors to Your Department.
* How Star Trek’s Canon Expert Helps Picard Revive Characters and Find the Future. Already hyped for Guinan in season two!
* The Untitled Goose Game and Philosophy.
* The real omission from the good-news stories is any honest acknowledgment of Amazon. The company sits comfortably at the peak of its influence, its supply chain built on the back of tax evasion, labor exploitation, corporate lobbying, massive profits from its web-server business, and federal antitrust enforcement that has hovered between lax and corrupt. Amazon’s power has been vast and growing for so long that it’s no longer new or noteworthy in the publishing press, except for the occasional article about its depressing brick-and-mortar bookstores, where endcap displays say things like “Books Most Frequently Highlighted by Kindle Customers.” Amazon’s bookseller origins seem almost quaint now that its blueprint is so vast its delivery vans roaming the streets, piloted by tired and underpaid third-party drivers; its lockers lining the walls of every 7-Eleven; its Echo speakers and touchscreens listening in from your kitchen, your living room, your bedroom, playing songs from Amazon Music and prestige TV from Amazon Prime, placing grocery orders with its recent acquisition Whole Foods. Sadly, publishing will never be as interesting as the complete and total restructuring of society. But with a market share of 45 percent of print books and 83 percent of ebooks, Amazon remains capable of crippling the industry and upending its practices with little more than an algorithmic tweak.
* In a break from tradition, I am endorsing all 12 Democratic candidates. “I’ll kill them all but better” didn’t work in 2004 and it won’t work now. This didn’t work in 2016 and it won’t work now. We Regret to Inform You that Hillary Clinton Is at It Again. ACP Endorses Single-Payer. Just what it says on the tin.
* Mitt Romney gets a puff piece like this at 3:12 PM and has already proved it wrong before dinner. Fun fact!
* Shocked the Schumer isn’t completely blowing it. Good on Warren for promising to make this all right.
* When rich people can’t get along.
* Glenn Greenwald Charged With Cybercrimes in Brazil.
* Ronald Reagan’s “October Surprise” Plot Was Real After All.
* N.K. Jemisin in the New Yorker.
* Greta Thunberg’s Remarks at the Davos Economic Forum.
* Australia’s Largest Mining Company is Worried Bushfires are Affecting Coal Production.
* Microsoft will be carbon negative by 2030 (it says).
* …we need a science that is decoupled from both poles: from the autonomous circuit of capital as well as from traditional wisdom, a science that could finally stand on its own. What this means is that there is no return to an authentic feeling of our unity with nature: the only way to confront ecological challenges is to accept fully the radical denaturalization of nature.
* Houston Is Now Less Affordable Than New York City: A new report finds that, when transportation costs are factored in, Texas’s biggest metros aren’t the bargain they often claim to be.
* Today in the Chinese Century: Single-use plastic: China to ban bags and other items.
* Whoever leads in artificial intelligence in 2030 will rule the world until 2100. What happens in 2100!
* Your online activity is now effectively a social ‘credit score.’
* The things you learn on Twitter.
Makes sense. Google used Enron emails to train its autocomplete. The dead ghosts of corporate malfeasance speak through us all now: https://t.co/fSzqQ5HCYO
— Jason Read (@Unemployedneg) January 21, 2020
* From the archives: The Millionaire Cop Next Door.
* If Your University Administration Ran a Polar Expedition.
* English is the world’s dominant scientific language, yet it has no word for the distinctive smell of cockroaches. What happens though, if you have no words for basic scientific terms? What happens if you have no word for ‘dinosaur.’
Written by gerrycanavan
January 22, 2020 at 4:43 pm
Posted in Look at what I found on the Internet
Tagged with academia, accessibility, administrative blight, affordability, Amazon, artificial intelligence, Australia, autocomplete, Bernie Sanders, Brazil, canon, canonicity, carbon, CBP, CFPs, child labor, China, Chuck Schumer, class struggle, climate change, coal, comics, Cops, Davos, Democratic primary 2020, Democrats, deportation, disability, Donald Trump, ecology, Elizabeth Warren, emails, endorsements, English, English departments, Enron, eviction, fascism, games, Glenn Greenwald, Google, Greta Thunberg, Hillary Clinton, hostages, Houston, How the University Works, ice, immigration, impeachment, internet of beefs, Iran, Jeff Bezos, Joe Biden, John Kerry, journalism, laptops, LEGO, memes, Microsoft, millionaires, Mitt Romney, Monopoly, Mr. Peanut, N.K. Jemisin, nature, New York, New Yorker, Oakland, October Surprise, pedagogy, philosophy, Picard, plastic, politics, rich people, robots, Ronald Reagan, rule of law, Saudi Arabia, science, science fiction, sex, single payer, social credit, social media, Star Trek, status, teaching, the courts, the law, the rent is too damn high, the truth is out there, treason, Twitter, UFOs, Untitled Goose Game, Ursula K. Le Guin, Wendy's, wildfires, Žižek
Super Ultra Mega Monday Links
* That is what America does. It is not broken. That is exactly what is wrong with it. The American Justice System Is Not Broken.
* Why Should Anyone “Respect” the Law?
* Autopsy: Milwaukee cop shot mentally-ill black man from above and behind, 14 times. Wave of Protests After Grand Jury Doesn’t Indict Officer in Eric Garner Chokehold Case. But they did manage to indict the man who filmed the murder. Worse Than Eric Garner: Cops Who Got Away With Killing Autistic Men and Little Girls. Prosecutors throwing grand jury inquiries to save killer cops. NYPD Abuse Increases Settlements Costing City $735 Million. Rookie NYPD cop who shot unarmed black man texted union reps before radioing for help. The cop who murdered Tamir Rice should never have been a cop. Grand Jury Clears Two Former Jasper Cops Who Beat Woman in Jail. Seattle Cop Who Punched a Handcuffed Woman in the Face Won’t Be Charged. Coastal Carolina students detained after writing unapproved chalk messages about Ferguson on campus sidewalks. Cop Fired for Beating a Non-violent, Handcuffed Man On Video, Gets Job Back AND Back Pay. Inside the Twisted Police Department That Kills Unarmed Citizens at the Highest Rate in the Country. The Deadly Self-Pity of the Police. Police Reforms You Should Always Oppose. Being a cop showed me just how racist and violent the police are. Where Are All the Good Cops? Ferguson Police investigating whether Michael Brown’s stepfather intended to incite a riot. If It Happened There: Courts Sanction Killings by U.S. Security Forces. The real scandal of police violence is what’s legal.
* But body cameras that the cops can freely turn on and off and whose footage they completely control will definitely solve it. You don’t have to take my word for it.
* Hey! My tuition bought you that shotgun. More links under the photo.
* Stories of unseen lives and the effects homelessness in Milwaukee.
* Racial inequality is objectively worse than 30 years ago. And another deBoer instant classic: Tell Stephen Glass I said hey and shut out the lights on your way out.
* On Being a Black Male, Six Feet Four Inches Tall, in America in 2014. Chris Rock vs. the industry.
* Marquette University response to Westboro Baptist Church protest.
* Rolling Stone just wrecked an incredible year of progress for rape victims. What happened at Rolling Stone was not Jackie’s fault. Blame Rolling Stone. The lesson of Rolling Stone and UVA: protecting victims means checking their stories. Reporters are not your friends.
* And just when I was thinking The Newsroom had actually gotten pretty good: Emily Nussbaum on The Newsroom‘s Crazy-Making Campus-Rape Episode. The AC Club: D-.
* Something I’d somehow missed when it was new, but came across in research for a new piece on zombies I’m working on: Margaret Atwood and Naomi Alderman’s The Happy Zombie Sunrise Home.
* Science fiction after Ferguson: An interview with Walidah Imarisha.
* SF as R&D for the very powerful: U.S. spy agency predicts a very transhuman future by 2030.
* Imagining an open source Star Wars.
* On the lack of cultural estrangement in SF.
* Scenes from the class struggle at Oregon: Admin threatens to deport striking international grad students, just straight-up make-up grades. U Oregon and the Academic Labor System. Megapost at MetaFilter.
* The Democrats’ Education Plan: Class War. Resegregation.
* Cal Refuses to Pay Berkeley Minimum Wage.
* Colleges that pledged to help poor families have been doing the opposite, new figures show.
* An update on the Salaita case from Corey Robin.
* “If students have time to get drunk, colleges aren’t doing their job.” MetaFilter links to the full series at CHE.
* The Equipment 117 Colleges Have Acquired From the Dept. of Defense.
* What I’ve Learned from Two Years Collecting Data on Police Killings.
* The latest New Inquiry on illness is another stellar issue from a publication that always delivers. This piece on love and schizophrenia is the one making the rounds currently.
* Kerry Puts Brakes on CIA Torture Report. John Kerry’s sad legacy.
* It Takes Nearly $100,000 a Year in Earnings Just to Buy a Crappy House in L.A.
* “Suicide Is My Retirement Plan.”
* Milwaukee after the recession: the jobs are going to the suburbs.
* Social justice as a means to social capital.
* 12 Female Characters Who Keep Shaving Despite Constant Peril.
* The music industry is a horror show, like everything else.
* Remembering Bhopal, the worst industrial disaster in the history of the world.
* We nearly saved the world, but we couldn’t give up our precious academic annual meetings.
* California drought the worst in 1,200 years, new study says. Won’t someone cancel the MLA before it kills again!
* First ever British sci-fi feature film released. Congratulations, England! Looking forward to your next one.
* 40 Years Ago, Earth Beamed Its First Postcard to the Stars.
* Court Hears Second Case for a Chimpanzee’s Legal Rights.
* Sony has apparently gone to war with North Korea. The future is weird, y’all.
* Someone Made A Map Of Every Rude Place Name In The UK.
* Shimer College: The Best Worst College in America.
* I mock the idea of “the law” around here a lot, but I never for the life of me imagined a scenario where the emergence of a video that shows a man accused of murdering his stepdaughter defiling her corpse could be bad news for the prosecution.
* Breaking news: the rich are different.
* So, for some reason, are the left-handed.
* But it’s not all bad news: The Case for Drinking as Much Coffee as You Like.
* The British Government Wants To Build A Tunnel Under Stonehenge.
* If I’m being perfectly honest I got bored watching the three-minute “What if The Hobbit was one movie?” trailer.
* Scholars, start your syllabi: New novel from Toni Morrison coming in April.
* Wes Anderson’s The Force Awakens. If only!
* And about 100 brains are missing from University of Texas. I’m late posting this, alas; all the easy jokes have already been taken…
Written by gerrycanavan
December 8, 2014 at 8:30 am
Posted in Look at what I found on the Internet
Tagged with Aaron Sorkin, academia, academic labor, accreditation, activism, adjunctification, adjuncts, Albuquerque, alcohol, America, animal personhood, armpit hair, bad apples, Berkeley, Bhopal, binge drinking, body cameras, books, brains, California, campus police, chalk, Charles Stross, chimpanzees, Chris Rock, CIA, class struggle, Cleveland, Coastal Carolina University, coffee, college, Columbia, conferences, cultural capital, data, death penalty, Democrats, deportation, Detroit, divorce, drought, ecology, environmentalism, Episode 7, Eric Garner, even the liberal New Republic, Ferguson, film, fraternities, good cops, grading, graduate student life, Great Recession, Hell, homelessness, housing, How the University Works, if only, Jasper, John Kerry, justice, Lady Gaga, left-handedness, Lord of the Rings, Los Angeles, love, maps, Margaret Atwood, Marquette, mental illness, Michael Brown, military-industrial complex, Milwaukee, minimum wage, misogyny, MLA, music, New York, North Korea, novels, NYPD, Occupy Cal, Octavia's Brood, open source, outer space, Peter Jackson, police brutality, police state, police violence, politics, poverty, prison, prison-industrial complex, protest, race, racism, rape, rape culture, reformism, resistance, retirement, riots, Rolling Stone, Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal, schizophrenia, science fiction, Seattle, segregation, sexism, Shimer College, social justice, Sony, St. Louis, Star Wars, statistics, Steven Salaita, Stonehenge, strikes, student movements, suburbs, suicide, surveillance society, Tamir Rice, television, Texas, the courts, The Force Awakens, The Hobbit, the law, The New Inquiry, The Newsroom, the rich are different, the status is not quo, Tolkien, Toni Morrison, torture, transhumanism, unions, United Kingdom, University of Oregon, UVA, W. Kamau Bell, Walidah Imarisha, Wes Anderson, Westboro Baptist Church, zombies
Monday Night Links
* Really good looking TT job in American Popular Culture at the University of Minnesota.
* A poorly designed (to my eye) study purporting to show adjunct faculty teaches better than tenured and tenure-track faculty is getting a ton of press today, as you’d expect.
* Meanwhile: Recent Deep State Higher Education Cuts May Harm Students and the Economy for Years to Come.
* Johns Hopkins and the Case of the Missing NSA Blog Post.
* Judge rules Indiana right-to-work law violates constitutional provision on forced services.
* More than the dress-up or the fabric-inspired mindbeat, fashion compelled me because the field is underwritten. Very little in the way of popular writing considers both the material reality and symbolic worth of fashion and dress, considers the field as we consider other cultural fields as worthy of critical discourse. What crushed me most about my foray into fashion journalism was a Word document I titled “EDITED OUT FUCK” (EOF), where I collected my writing that had been cut due to advertiser conflict. Finding Not Vogue was like discovering a Wikileak of my EOF.
* Meet The Trans Scholar Fighting Against The Campaign For Out Trans Military Service.
* Did Obama and Kerry just draw an inside straight on Syria? I hope to God they did.
* George Zimmerman in the news again.
* History’s greatest monster: How Joss Whedon may have accidentally got Angel cancelled.
* 105 years in jail for posting a link.
* Man Changes Address, Tricks Demo Crew Into Destroying Neighbor’s House.
* New van Gogh discovered. Wow.
* And Twitter reminded me that Strange Horizons posted John Rieder’s “On Defining SF, or Not: Genre Theory, SF, and History,” and I’d completely forgotten to link it.
Written by gerrycanavan
September 9, 2013 at 8:38 pm
Posted in Look at what I found on the Internet
Tagged with academia, academic jobs, actually existing media bias, adjuncts, advertising, American Studies, Angel, art, austerity, Barack Obama, blindness, Buffy, class struggle, disability, domestic surveillance, fashion, foreclosure, genre, George Zimmerman, guns, How the University Works, imperialism, Indiana, Iowa, John Kerry, John Rieder, Johns Hopkins, Joss Whedon, NSA, painting, pedagogy, politics, popular culture, right to work, science fiction, surveillance society, Syria, teaching, television, tenure, transgender issues, University of Minnesota, van Gogh, war huh good god y'all what is it good for? absolutely nothing say it again, writing
Saturday!
* Features, not bugs: America Is Raising A Generation Of Kids Who Can’t Think Or Write Clearly.
* Former NFL Tight End Wins Concussion Grievance Case Against Cincinnati Bengals.
* Onondaga Public Library in Syracuse, New York, has an enormous collection of roughly 1,100 vintage books in science fiction, mystery and “other genres.” But apparently, there isn’t enough interest to keep them in circulation. So they’re asking people to propose what should be done with them.
* None of this means that the GOP couldn’t win Florida in 2016. But there should be serious doubts about whether there’s room for another round of big, additional gains among Florida whites. And once those doubts are raised, the GOP route to victory in Florida looks tough. They’d need a lot to break right in order to squeak out a victory in 2016, let alone afterward. There’s the scary possibility that Florida goes the way of Nevada: the next Democrat would win Florida by 9 points if they merely did as well as Kerry among Florida’s white voters.
* Remaking the University v. Napolitano: Meritocracies define “being qualified” for the biggest job in a field as requiring prior experience in other jobs in the field.
* A Synopsis of Tim Burton’s Batman Based Only on the Prince Soundtrack.
* Just for the Comedy Bing Bong fans: When Reddit asked Scott Aukerman anything.
* xkcd’s “Time” has now been running for over one hundred days, and is now more than 2500 panels long.
* And Gawker presents some hard-hitting reporting on The Pizza Belt. I’m a native. This is all 100% accurate.
Written by gerrycanavan
July 13, 2013 at 9:00 am
Posted in Look at what I found on the Internet
Tagged with America, Batman, California, class struggle, Comedy Bang Bang, concussions, film, finally my life story can be told, Florida, football, general election 2016, Hispanic voters, Janet Napolitano, John Kerry, libraries, meritocracy, New Jersey, New York, NFL, No Child Left Behind, Occupy Cal, pedagogy, pizza, politics, Prince, pulp novels, race, Reddit, Republicans, science fiction, Scott Aukerman, the humanities, Tim Burton, time, web comics, xkcd
Senate Centrist Halfsies Moderate American Clean Energy & Security Act
To summarize, Graham et al. seem set to explode the fragile consensus formed around ACES in favor of a piece of legislation that will cost more. They’ll lose the coal utilities but are unlikely to pick up Big Oil. The broad range of recipients of pollution allowances under ACES, who were set to receive a steady, predictable income over decades, now face a future patchwork of subsidies dependent on the whims of legislators—just the kind of meddling and favoritism carbon pricing was supposed to transcend. Via Kevin Drum.
Written by gerrycanavan
March 3, 2010 at 9:06 am
Posted in Look at what I found on the Internet
Tagged with cap and trade, carbon, climate change, ecology, Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, Lindsey Graham
Thursday Night Links
* Details of the “tripartisan” (ugh) climate change bill from Kerry, Lieberman, and Lindsey Graham have been released. More at Climate Progress and Grist.
* Myth vs. Reality on the Copenhagen Climate Summit.
* A study released today suggests sea level could rise three times faster than IPCC estimates.
* How do you define recovery? Krugman says 300,000 jobs a month.
* Perhaps contrary to expectations, Howard Dean has embraced the latest health care compromise.
* And io9 considers the real crises: Are We Falling Behind China In Weather-Control Technology?
Written by gerrycanavan
December 10, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Posted in Look at what I found on the Internet
Tagged with China, climate change, Copenhagen, ecology, health care, Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, Krugman, politics, rising sea levels, unemployment, weather
Friday Links
* Good job numbers suggest the recession could be bottoming out. Of course, you can’t please everyone.
* BREAKING: Ben Bernanke is kind of a douche.
* Ted Kennedy may be gone, but John Kerry still won’t support the Cape Wind project in Nantucket Sound.
* In a new piece in Vanity Fair, Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater/Xe, turns out to have been CIA. Via MeFi. What’s next for this real-life Bond villain?
For the time being, however, Prince contends that his plans are far more modest. “I’m going to teach high school,” he says, straight-faced. “History and economics. I may even coach wrestling. Hey, Indiana Jones taught school, too.”
* New Jersey to pave million-year-old dinosaur footprints to put up parking lot. Okay, actually condos.
* Can humans reproduce in zero gravity?
This finding casts into doubt the science fictional notion that human beings can survive in zero gravity or in the microgravity environment of large asteroids.
* Could a super-advanced civilization live inside the acretion disk, the super-dense area around the black hole at the center of a galaxy?
* The headline reads, “Prostitutes Offer Free Climate Summit Sex.”
Copenhagen Mayor Ritt Bjerregaard sent postcards to city hotels warning summit guests not to patronize Danish sex workers during the upcoming conference. Now, the prostitutes have struck back, offering free sex to anyone who produces one of the warnings.
The other thing that struck me about her interview was her contention that she didn’t go after Obama enough during the election, and namely, that avoiding the birther thing was a mistake. I suppose she could have gone completely off the deep end during the campaign, and certainly it seems she wanted to but was held back by McCain, but good god, who in their right mind thinks she wasn’t enough on the attack? She accused Obama, through implication, of being a terrorist. She did so in a way that maximized the anti-Muslim insinuation, even though neither Barack Obama nor Bill Ayers (who is the excuse for this rumor-mongering) is Muslim, making the whole thing not only racist but incoherent. She went out of her way to imply that anyone who was not white or lived in a city was not a Real American. She red-baited Obama. She did everything but tell jokes about his mom. Her entire campaign strategy was to attack Obama. I fail to see how she could have done more, honestly. There aren’t enough hours in the day.
* And science proves Rousseau was right: God created man in his own image and man, being a gentleman, returned the favor.
Written by gerrycanavan
December 4, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Posted in Look at what I found on the Internet
Tagged with aliens, atheism, Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, birthers, Blackwater, Bond villains, CIA, Copenhagen, dinosaurs, Federal Reserve, fossils, general election 2008, Indiana Jones, John Kerry, Krugman, New Jersey, outer space, pedagogy, prostitution, recession, religion, Rousseau, Sarah Palin, science, Ted Kennedy, the economy, unemployment, wind power, Won't somebody think of the children?
Daschlementum
News that Tom Daschle will head HHS has encouraged advocates of health care reform. Meanwhile, John Kerry collects his SecState consolation prize: he’s likely to succeed Biden as chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Written by gerrycanavan
November 20, 2008 at 12:16 am
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with Barack Obama, foreign policy, health care, John Kerry, politics, Secretary of State, the Cabinet, the Senate, Tom Daschle
Kerry as SecState?
Besides Howard Dean, the other “John the Baptist” figure for this landslide progressive victory is John Kerry, whose selection of Barack Obama as the DNC keynote speaker in 2004 catapulted him to national prominence. Now rumors are swirling that Kerry is “actively seeking” an appointment as Secretary of State.
How strange it is to contemplate an administration that isn’t manned by moral monsters.
Written by gerrycanavan
November 5, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with Barack Obama, Howard Dean, John Kerry, politics, Secretary of State
Kerry v. Obama
Kevin Drum has gotten a lot of people talking with his suggestion that the Left is better off having lost with Kerry in 2004 if it meant going on to win with Obama in 2008.
Back in 2004, I remember at least a few bloggers and pundits arguing that liberals would be better off if John Kerry lost. I never really bought this, but the arguments were pretty reasonable. Leaving George Bush in power meant that he’d retain responsibility and blame for the Iraq war. (Despite the surge, that’s exactly what happened.) Four more years of Republican control would turn the American public firmly against conservative misrule. (Actually, it only took two years.) If we waited, a better candidate than Kerry would come along. (Arguably, both Hillary Clinton and Obama were better candidates.)
Conversely, it’s unlikely that John Kerry could have gotten much done with a razor-thin victory and a Congress still controlled by the GOP. What’s more, there’s a good chance that the 2006 midterm rebellion against congressional Republicans wouldn’t have happened if Kerry had gotten elected. By waiting, we’ve gotten a strong, charismatic candidate who’s likely to win convincingly and have huge Democratic majorities in Congress behind him. If he’s willing to fully use the power of his office, Obama could very well be a transformational president.
Dana at The Edge of the American West and Hilzoy both make arguments that this is something a political partisan must never allow themselves to consider—you have to fight to win, every time, as hard as you can, because the future is uncertain and unknowable and the present is immediate. And yet it seems to me that Kevin is obviously right that the horrific Bush victory in 2004 could in fact turn out to have been better than a Kerry victory, given a successful Obama presidency and a long-enough time horizon. It depends what Obama does once he takes office, if he turns out to be the transformational president I have long believed he will be, and to what extent the disastrous policies of the last four years can be “undone” through wise policy in the next eight.
As it stands, alongside what evil he has done, Bush has nearly singlehandedly destroyed both the Republican Party and conservatism as an ideology. Republicans were driven from Congress in historic proportions in 2006, with 2008 looking to surpass it. Obama, the most progressive candidate for president in my lifetime, will nominate at least two, and possibly more, judges to the Supreme Court, while (again, in the best-case scenario) implementing environmental and social reforms that could come to redefine American capitalism in much the same way as the New Deal. 2008 could realign the country politically, in our favor, for decades.
Does a Kerry presidency match this? As much as I like Kerry and as hard as I worked to get him elected, this counterhistory seems much less successful. A Kerry who wins 2004 in a squeaker in Ohio still faces the disastrous consequences of the first Bush term, as well as Katrina and perhaps even, to some extent or another, this year’s bottoming-out of the post-Fordist culture of debt. In that universe we might well be watching Kerry go down to a nail-biter against Romney, a fight I’m not at all sure we’d win. Likewise, Republicans weren’t forced out from Congress in 2006, and don’t face crushing losses in 2008. The country, though spared four very bad years, has not been transformed.
The point is this: taking a longer view than the four-year election cycle, a very successful Obama presidency will have been better for both the Left and the country as a whole than the weak, “caretaker” Kerry presidency we likely would have gotten out of 2004. If Obama lives up to the hype, historically speaking it might have all been worth it. Let’s hope.
Written by gerrycanavan
November 4, 2008 at 3:00 am
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with 2004, 2008, alternate history, Barack Obama, best-case scenarios, Bush, debt, general election 2008, history, John Kerry, morning in America, post-Fordism, science fiction, the Left
The Polls
Above is a chart from Chris Bowers by way of Matt Yglesias charting the comparative advantages of Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Al Gore over the course of the campaign season. This is an important charts for Democrats who are about to be confronted with something that has long seemed impossible: not just a victory but what looks to be a blowout. For the last fifty days of election 2004, we were never ahead, according to the polls—we just thought we were, having mystified the polls and made faulty assumptions about turnout and the undecided break.
Obama’s situation is quite different, with a nine-point lead in the final NBC/WSJ poll and between nine and eleven points in Gallup. Those numbers would have McCain underperforming Dukakis, and if you believe in Nate Silver’s cellphone effect, the margin could be even larger. This same movement is reflected in the tracking polls—despite persistent claims that “the polls are narrowing,” there’s no real evidence of this.
And Obama has already locked down good margins in the early vote, to all appearances: over 2.5 million people have already voted in North Carolina, including almost half of the state’s African-American population and 44% of registered Democrats. In Colorado and New Mexico in particular, the margins may already be too great to overcome.
What I’m saying is, though there’s still work to be done, this time I really think we actually win.
Written by gerrycanavan
November 3, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with 2000, 2004, Al Gore, Barack Obama, Bush, Charlie Brown, Colorado, don't believe the polls, Dukakis, general election 2008, John Kerry, John McCain invented the blackerry, Lucy and the football, New Mexico, North Carolina, Peanuts, politics, polls
Friday Evening Links
Friday evening links.
* Joe the Plumber…for Congress?
* New Jersey’s Star-Ledger cuts it newsroom staff by half.
* Joe “Let’s Assume the Best” Lieberman hits another Sarah Palin question right out of the park.
[W]hen asked by The Advocate if Palin is ready to be president from day one, Lieberman said “thank God she’s not going to have to be president from day one. McCain’s going to be alive and well.”
* Palin 2012? The buzz continues!
* Republicans are at each other’s throats, and the rats-off-a-sinking-ship watch hits a new high water mark with the first Obama endorsement by a McCain advisor.
* And Barack Obama is well ahead of both Kerry and Gore, eleven days out.
Written by gerrycanavan
October 25, 2008 at 12:54 am
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with 2000, 2004, Al Gore, Barack Obama, circular firing squads, endorsements, general election 2012, Joe Lieberman, Joe the Plumber, John Kerry, newspapers, Republicans, Sarah Palin, the Star-Ledger, veepstakes
Six Reasons Obama Will Win
Six reasons Obama will win at National Journal Online, via electoral-vote.com.
1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.
I remember the glorious afternoon and heartbreaking evening of November 2, 2004, well enough to know not to count America’s chickens before they come home to roost.
Written by gerrycanavan
October 22, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with 2004, Barack Obama, general election 2008, Jeremiah Wright, John Kerry, John McCain, politics, premature victory laps, race
Endorsements
Barack Obama has attracted the support of nearly three times as many newspapers as John McCain, according to a round-up from Editor and Publisher, as the endorsement season hits a frenzied pitch.
Obama picked up the backing of several major dailies on Friday, including the Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post and the Chicago Tribune, which has never endorsed a Democratic nominee for president.
In 2004, these numbers were much closer, roughly 50-50, due to the high prevalence of right-leaning local papers.
Along the same lines, Matt is surprised by the number of Kay Hagan endorsements.
The big endorsement right now, though, looks to be Colin Powell’s, who is again rumored to be making a bid to restore his reputation by endorsing Obama this weekend on Meet the Press.
Written by gerrycanavan
October 17, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with Barack Obama, Bush, Colin Powell, endorsements, general election 2008, if only people still read newspapers, John Kerry, John McCain, Kay Hagan, North Carolina, politics
Politics Links
Politics links.
* The NSA has been shamelessly spying on people they knew had nothing to do with terrorism. More at Washington Monthly. Why is nobody in jail over this?
* Matt has a flashback back to 2004 to argue that thinking we would win back them is nothing like thinking we’re going to win now.
* Will a reverse Bradley effect benefit Obama? Maybe, but it’s certain that corrupt voter-roll tampering will once again help the Republicans. Why is nobody in jail over this?
* You can only steal a close election. West Virginia is a tossup?
* The GOP is grumbling in Nevada and Virginia.
* Can the Dems hit 60 in the Senate? Ezra Klein look at the possibilities, while Matt Yglesias says 59 isn’t really all that different from 61. (Maybe, but I’d still like 61.)
* What are the candidates transition teams like? Did you just say one of them doesn’t have one?
* Obama gives his most direct statement on Ayers yet.
Obama “had assumed” from Bill Ayers’ stature in Chicago, he told the Philadelphia-based Michael Smerconish, that Ayers had been “rehabilitated” since his 1960s crimes.
In the interview, which was taped this afternoon and will air tomorrow, and which you can listen to above, Obama recalled moving back to Chicago after law school, and becoming involved in civic life there.
“The gentleman in question, Bill Ayers, is a college professor, teaches education at the University of Illinois,” he said. “That’s how i met him — working on a school reform project that was funded by an ambassador and very close friend of Ronald Reagan’s” along with “a bunch of conservative businessmen and civic leaders.”
“Ultimately, I ended up learning about the fact that he had engaged in this reprehensible act 40 years ago, but I was eight years old at the time and I assumed that he had been rehabilitated,” Obama said.
* And George Packer, touring rural Ohio in the lead-up to the election, writes up his experiences there in the New Yorker.
Dave Herbert was a stocky, talkative building contractor in an Ohio State athletic jersey. At thirty-eight, he considerably lowered the average age in Bonnie’s. “I’m self-employed,” he said. “I can’t afford to be a Democrat.” Herbert was a devoted viewer of Fox News and talked in fluent sound bites about McCain’s post-Convention “bounce” and Sarah Palin’s “executive experience.” At one point, he had doubted that Obama stood a chance in Glouster. “From Bob and Pete’s generation there are a lot of racists—not out-and-out, but I thought there was so much racism here that Obama’d never win.” Then he heard a man who freely used the “ ‘n’ word” declare his support for Obama: “That blew my theory out of the water.”
A maintenance man at the nearby high school, who declined to give his name, said that he had been undecided until McCain selected Palin to be his running mate, which swung his support to Obama.
“So you’re a sexist more than a racist,” Herbert joked.
“I just think the guy Obama picked would do better if he got assassinated than McCain’s if he died of frickin’ old age in office,” the maintenance man said.
Four women of retirement age were sitting at the next table. All of them spoke warmly of Palin. “She’d fit right in with us,” Greta Jennice said. “We should invite her over.” None had a good word to say about Obama. “I think he’s a radical,” a white-haired woman who wouldn’t give her name said. “The church he went to, the people he associated with. You don’t see the media digging into that.”
“I don’t know anyone who’s for Obama,” said Jennice, a Democrat who supported Hillary Clinton and who won’t vote in November.
“If they are, they don’t say it, because it would be unpopular,” an elderly former teacher named Marcella said. That had not been true of Bill Clinton, Al Gore, or John Kerry, she added.
“I think the party-line Democrats are having a hard time with Obama,” Bobbie Dunham, a retired fourth-grade teacher, told me. When I asked if Obama’s health-care plan wouldn’t be a good thing for people in Glouster, she said, “I’ll believe it when I see it. If it’s actually happening, I’d say that’s good.” But she and the others had far more complaints about locals freeloading off public assistance than about the health-insurance industry and corporations. Dunham declared her intention to write in a vote for either Snoopy or T. Boone Pickens. “I’m not going to vote for a Republican—they’ve had their chance for the last eight years and they’ve screwed it up,” she said. “But I really just don’t trust Obama. He only says half-truths. He calls himself a Christian, but he only became one to run for office. He calls himself a black, but he’s two-thirds Arab.”
I asked where she had learned that.
“On the Internet.”
Written by gerrycanavan
October 10, 2008 at 12:40 am
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged with 2004, Barack Obama, Bill Ayers, Bradley effect, general election 2008, John Kerry, John McCain, Nevada, NSA, Ohio, politics, race, Republicans, the Senate, voter suppression, West Virginia, wiretapping