Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘in spite of everything i still believe that people are really good at heart

Official 2010 Prediction Thread

with 8 comments

As usually is the case with these things I’m taking a much more optimistic tack than is properly reasonable, but here goes:

* Democrats take at least 5/7 of PA, CO, IL, WA, WV, AK, and NV. This is basically running the table of what’s left to them, but I think they can do it due to GOTV advantage, cell phone effect, under-the-radar surges, etc. (Deep down I really think they take all 7, but I want to hedge the optimism at least a little.)

* Republicans take WI, KY, and of course my beloved NC (sigh).

If I’m reading the FiveThirtyEight average right that puts the Dems at -6 in the Senate, 53 Senators, safely outside the Lieberman/Nelson betrayal threshold.

I think the House is probably lost, but not by as much as the worst polls suggest: call it Republicans +40. Bring on the shutdown, bring on impeachment, bring on the end of all good things.

Tonight’s Special Comment

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Olbermann’s special comment on Prop 8. KO’s characteristic melodrama aside, I have to agree with him: it boggles my mind that this is an argument we are having as a nation, that there is anyone, anywhere, who could actually oppose marriage equality. I can’t begin to understand it. I suppose I’m impatient—GLBT issues have made tremendous progress even since the 1990s, and in a few years this will all be (almost) over—but this is really a struggle I just wish we could skip to the end of.

At one point I was hopeful that Prop 8 would be the first big victory for our side. I’m still upset it wasn’t. Keith is, in the end, right: this vote is horrible.

Written by gerrycanavan

November 11, 2008 at 3:09 am