Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘exit polls

Can’t Get Enough Election Links

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The Recount Fairy?

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Is New Jersey about to get a visit from the recount fairy? Apparently both parties are bracing for this, with the National Review‘s @jimgeraghty tweeting early exits nobody should take seriously: Corzine 47, Christie 47, Daggett barely registering. Polls close at 8 PM.

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November 3, 2009 at 11:00 pm

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Afternoon News

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Afternoon news.

* The Rick Davis lobbying revelation is the big campaign story today as the McCain camp struggles to find some way to respond. The indispensable Steve Benen dissects their first attempt here, with this succinct summary of why this matters:

Remember, the McCain campaign walked right into this one, insisting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were largely responsible for the Wall Street crisis, and any associations between a candidate and officials at the lending companies are necessarily scandalous.

Talk about leading with one’s chin….

More at HuffPo and TPM, which notes that Davis “quietly canceled” a scheduled lunch with reporters today.

* A report from the Pew Center says that cell-phone-only voters are not being properly counted in the polls. And Marist’s poll of swing states has Obama sweeping the map: IA, NH, OH, PA, and MI, where he has (according to this one poll with a high margin of error) a nine-point lead.

* Kos says the Palin pick is already paying unexpected dividends, as if McCain had been more responsible he probably would have picked Romney.

But think, what if McCain had picked Mitt Romney as his veep choice, like so many of us were fervently hoping?

Sure, the rollout wouldn’t have give McCain a fraction of the attention and excitement that Palin generated. The GOP ticket’s (now evaporated) post-convention bump would’ve been smaller, and maybe Romney would’ve been less effective at revving up the fundy base.

But right now? Romney would be kicking ass. The media would treat him with deference as an economic expert, and let’s be honest, he does looks straight out of central casting for the role of “serious businessman who we should defer to on the economy”. McCain wouldn’t have to hide him. Romney could make the media rounds, being taken seriously no matter what GOP gibberish he spouted. Rather than flail and cower, a McCain/Romney ticket would look sure-footed and confident, projecting gravitas in a time of uncertainty.

What’s more, McCain would no longer look like a political opportunist in his VP choice. He’d be lauded for being such a “maverick”, picking his greatest primary rival. The GOP and its apologists could say, with a straight face, that McCain put “country first”, and actually get away with it since it’s obvious McCain personally loathes Romney.

Good thing Mittens was snubbed.

* Also at Kos, Meteor Blades argues that the Congressional Democrats’ myriad failures on energy this seession are not as bad as all that.

Hurrah! What a relief. This summer’s rush to remedy 27 years of bad energy policy in just a few weeks had generated a mish-mash of contradictory proposals that couldn’t possibly be fully discussed or vetted. Better to wait, as I’ve said from the get-go.

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September 24, 2008 at 5:14 pm

North Carolina Polls

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No one knows how to poll North Carolina. SurveyUSA on Tuesday had McCain suddenly up 20 points after his convention, 58%-38%—but PPP’s poll yesterday had Kay Hagan up 1 over Liddy Dole and Obama only down 4. Why the huge discrepancy? Well, for one, the PPP poll includes Bob Barr, but it also has voter identification numbers I just can’t believe: 49% Democrat, 36% Republican, 15% independent. The SurveyUSA poll, in contrast, used a likely voter screen that resulted in a 40% Democrat, 41% Republican party ID split—which I’m a bit skeptical of as well.

For what it’s worth, PPP did better in the primary, though neither did especially well.

Bush took the state in 2004 by twelve points, so taken together these polls tell us we’re either doing much worse or much better, or about the same, as we did then…

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September 10, 2008 at 2:31 pm

Calvin on the Polls

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Today’s Calvin & Hobbes (originally run June 22, 1987) brings back to mind one of the strip’s better running gags: Calvin’s perennial polling of his father’s performance as “Dad.” For some reason people who should know better keep breathlessly reporting the daily oscillations of months-out national polls as if they actually mean something—and given that we still have (at least) 91 more days of this silliness, I think we can all use the reminder.

Thanks to this extremely exhaustive Calvin & Hobbes archive and search engine for the images.

December 2, 1985

January 28, 1986

March 18, 1986

August 30, 1986
(this one’s my favorite)

July 24, 1987

April 11, 1988

April 12, 1988

November 7, 1988

January 3, 1992

April 30, 1992

September 20, 1993

July 26, 1994

And probably the most important comment on the state of democracy in a mass-media culture in the entire run of Calvin & Hobbes, March 1, 1994:

UPDATE: Okay, two more, also highly appropriate for the moment.

September 2, 1988

August 31, 1992

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August 5, 2008 at 8:09 pm

Exit Poll Drama 5 PM ET! Breaking!

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As the political blogosphere once again loses its collective shit over early exit polls, it’s important to remember the wise words of Brendan Loy: The exit polls have always tended to favor Obama. If Drudge’s exits really do say 52 C-48 O, then my guess of “Obama losing around ten points” is probably close to right.

Don’t trust to hope, it’ll only break your heart.

PS: Especially don’t trust anything they say at National Review Online. That’s good advice for your whole life, not just tonight.

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April 22, 2008 at 9:42 pm

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Breaking: Early Pennsylvania Exits

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Breaking news! A correspondent from Pennsylvania writes in with early exit numbers:

So according to my informal exit poll, Obama is winning with 100% of the vote so far (assuming the guy in front of me in the Obama t-shirt also voted for him).

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April 22, 2008 at 2:39 pm

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WI Early Exits

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As always, exits have been leaked and are starting to show up on the Internet. These are good for Obama, but then again nearly all the exits have been good for Obama.

Here’s Politco:

Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Senator Obama looks like he’s headed for a huge win in today’s Wisconsin primary. The polls could turn out to be off, as they have in the past. But the officials’ revelation reflects the chatter in the campaigns in advance of the 9 p.m. Eastern poll closing.

The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters – women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes – while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.

And here’s Halperin with the Fox News exits:

Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%

Rare to see actual, specific numbers so early.

Polls in Wisconsin close at 9 ET. I’ve got a lot of work tonight, but I’ll try to throw one or two things up if I can.

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February 19, 2008 at 11:23 pm

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Preresults II

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It’s not long until we know for sure, but Drudge’s leaked exit polls show Obama with a 2-1 lead in Virginia and Maryland and a 3-1 lead in DC. (UPDATE: The Republican race looks a whole lot tighter. Can the Huckabee surge continue?) Everyone’s reporting record turnout, which is also a very good sign. Sit tight…

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February 12, 2008 at 11:30 pm

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Exit Polls?

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Take it with a massive grain of salt, but this diary at Kos claims to have exits showing an Obama landslide. (Just as I was about to post this I noticed that Josh Marshall put them up too. That makes me feel better. Still nervous.)

GA: C- 25.5, O – 75
CT: C – 45, O – 52.2
IL: C – 29.1, O – 69.6
AL: C – 37, O – 59.6
DE: C – 41.9, O – 55.6
MA: C – 47.3, O – 49.8
MO: C – 45.1, O – 49.8
TN: C – 51.6, O – 41.1
NY: C – 55.6, O – 42.2
NJ: C – 47, O – 52.2
AR: C – 71.2, O – 25.5
OK: C – 60.5, O – 30.4
AZ: C – 44.8, O – 50.5

1st wave:
NM: C – 45.6, O – 51.8
UT: C – 39.9, O – 60.1
CA: C – 49.6, O – 46.3

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February 5, 2008 at 11:34 pm

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