Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Posts Tagged ‘don't believe the polls

And a Very Merry Election’s Night’s Eve To You Too

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The Day After, A Reading List

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* What we need to focus on now is the obvious question: what the hell went wrong? What species of cluelessness guided our Democratic leaders as they went about losing what they told us was the most important election of our lifetimes?

* The exits.

* Why did Clinton lose? Blame the National Democrats.

* Wisconsin Election Turnout Near 20-Year Low.

* Everything We Thought We Knew About Politics Was Wrong. The Republic Repeals Itself. The Coming White Identity Politics. President Trump’s First Term.

* Political cartooning at the end of the world.


* From the archives, a key insight about Trump’s rhetoric that Democrats have consistently failed to understand.

* Sarah Kendzior seems to be one of only a few people who have gotten Trumpism right so far.

* A Storify of the things I’ve been tweeting since this morning.

* And/but/so at least we’ve learned something from all this: Obama To Push For TPP In Last Days Of Term.



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As hopes for 2010 Democratic landslide seem to fade, Nate Silver says all is not lost.

Written by gerrycanavan

August 16, 2009 at 6:01 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Tagged with , , ,

The Polls

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Above is a chart from Chris Bowers by way of Matt Yglesias charting the comparative advantages of Barack Obama, John Kerry, and Al Gore over the course of the campaign season. This is an important charts for Democrats who are about to be confronted with something that has long seemed impossible: not just a victory but what looks to be a blowout. For the last fifty days of election 2004, we were never ahead, according to the polls—we just thought we were, having mystified the polls and made faulty assumptions about turnout and the undecided break.

Obama’s situation is quite different, with a nine-point lead in the final NBC/WSJ poll and between nine and eleven points in Gallup. Those numbers would have McCain underperforming Dukakis, and if you believe in Nate Silver’s cellphone effect, the margin could be even larger. This same movement is reflected in the tracking polls—despite persistent claims that “the polls are narrowing,” there’s no real evidence of this.

And Obama has already locked down good margins in the early vote, to all appearances: over 2.5 million people have already voted in North Carolina, including almost half of the state’s African-American population and 44% of registered Democrats. In Colorado and New Mexico in particular, the margins may already be too great to overcome.

What I’m saying is, though there’s still work to be done, this time I really think we actually win.

‘Polls Show Obama Ahead In All Three Largest Swing States’

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Another good-looking headline: ‘Polls Show Obama Ahead In All Three Largest Swing States.’


Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%


Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%


Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Written by gerrycanavan

October 29, 2008 at 2:57 pm

‘Obama Leading In Eight Battlegrounds Bush Led In Four Years Ago’

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The headline reads: ‘Obama Leading In Eight Battlegrounds Bush Led In Four Years Ago.’ Full details and impressive-looking numbers at the link.

Written by gerrycanavan

October 28, 2008 at 7:27 pm

Landslide Watch, Georgia Edition

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Landslide watch: InsiderAdvantage puts Obama up by a point in Georgia.

Written by gerrycanavan

October 24, 2008 at 2:42 pm

Don’t Believe the Polls

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Don’t believe the polls, but they’re pretty to look at: CBS/NY Times puts the race at 52-39.

Written by gerrycanavan

October 24, 2008 at 12:13 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Tagged with , , , ,

Landslide Watch

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The Electoral College map is starting to look a lot like my obscene fantasy blowout, with OpenLeft’s most recent presidential forecast looking exactly like it. Obama—perhaps capitalizing on my hoped-for Ron Paul effect—has now taken a four-point lead in Montana, and CNN/Time polls from other swing states continue to look bad from Johnny Mc.

As reported and then strenuously denied earlier in the week, he’s now shifting advertising to Bush states, signaling he’s trying to play defense and possibly just avoid a blowout. Colorado in particular seems to have been abandoned. Pennsylvania remains McCain’s Last Stand, and I remain unconvinced he really has any sort of shot there.

More importantly the circular firing squad in the GOP has begun in earnest, most notably symbolized an NRSC Liddy Dole ad put out today that takes as its premise a McCain loss. Republicans are scrambling to be heirs to the throne: witness JoinRudy2012 and Marc Ambinder’s argument that Sarah Palin is positioning herself to be next in line in 2012.

All I can say to that is “Yes, please.”

Written by gerrycanavan

October 23, 2008 at 8:30 pm

We Can’t Really Be This Far Ahead, Can We?

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The Quinnipiac and Big 10 Battleground polls have terrible news for McCaniacs. We can’t really be this far ahead, can we? Via Daily Kos.

The highlights:

Florida (Quinnipiac)
Obama 49
McCain 44

Indiana (Big 10)
Obama 51
McCain 41

Ohio (Big 10)
Obama 53
McCain 41

Ohio (Quinnippiac):
Obama 52
McCain 38

Pennsylvania (Big 10)
Obama 52
McCain 41

Pennsylvania (Quinnippiac)
Obama 53
McCain 40

Written by gerrycanavan

October 23, 2008 at 12:45 pm