Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Understanding the Census

with 6 comments

AZ+1, FL+2, GA+1, NV+1, SC+1, TX+4, UT+1, WA+1, IL-1, IA-1, LA-1, MA-1, MI-1, MO-1, NJ-1, NY-2, OH-2, PA-1.

I’ve been dropping into a few comment threads here and there to remind people that population growth in the most recent Census is not simply a matter of raw numbers; because a significant portion of the growth in red states is driven by immigration (legal and illegal) and relocation from other, bluer states like Pennsylvania, New York, and Michigan, the long-term effects of this will be (1) to tend to make red states bluer and (2) to tend to moderate the Republican Party. It’s not especially great news for the Obama 2012 campaign, whose path to victory narrows slightly by 6 EVs—but taking a longer view these results should benefit Democrats and the left, especially in places like Texas and Arizona.

Written by gerrycanavan

December 21, 2010 at 1:16 pm

6 Responses

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  1. of course you’re assuming that democrats == left, and why??

    Adam František Kollár

    December 21, 2010 at 1:24 pm

  2. I actually said “Democrats and the left” in the post in an attempt to *avoid* the implication that Democrats == left. But the long-term demographic trends in the country help Democrats and they help the left even though the two groups aren’t identical.

    gerrycanavan

    December 21, 2010 at 1:27 pm

  3. “Texas gains four. It seems that most of the growth is in Blue portions of Red states.”

    The last time Texas voted for a Democrat for president was 1976. 2012 is almost certainly too soon, but 2016? 2020? It may not be so far off.

    gerrycanavan

    December 21, 2010 at 1:29 pm

  4. gerrycanavan

    December 21, 2010 at 1:33 pm

  5. dude, totally wish you’d been around for trivia tonight….

    Lindsey

    December 21, 2010 at 11:59 pm

  6. […] Silver is here to crush any optimism you might want to have about 2010′s Census results. Nate allows us a small glimmer of hope near the end of the first […]


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