Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Official 2010 Prediction Thread

with 8 comments

As usually is the case with these things I’m taking a much more optimistic tack than is properly reasonable, but here goes:

* Democrats take at least 5/7 of PA, CO, IL, WA, WV, AK, and NV. This is basically running the table of what’s left to them, but I think they can do it due to GOTV advantage, cell phone effect, under-the-radar surges, etc. (Deep down I really think they take all 7, but I want to hedge the optimism at least a little.)

* Republicans take WI, KY, and of course my beloved NC (sigh).

If I’m reading the FiveThirtyEight average right that puts the Dems at -6 in the Senate, 53 Senators, safely outside the Lieberman/Nelson betrayal threshold.

I think the House is probably lost, but not by as much as the worst polls suggest: call it Republicans +40. Bring on the shutdown, bring on impeachment, bring on the end of all good things.

8 Responses

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  1. Wanted to add: California fails to legalize it.

    gerrycanavan

    November 1, 2010 at 8:47 pm

  2. I think McAdams finishes second in Alaska, behind Murkowski, and then we get to see another delightful Franken-style battle where dems fight to get enough write-in ballots thrown out on bullshit technicalities to make the difference. I love politics!

    I think the forces of good hold WV, NV, WA (barely– and because that state handles voting by mail (and because mail votes there just have to be postmarked by election day), I’m nearly certain there’ll be a gnarly protracted recount) and CO…IL I’m significantly less certain about, but I think we have a damn good shot, same for PA to a lesser extent.

    I think the house is also lost, but I’d love to be pleasantly surprised– I’ll say 50 or so seats gone.

    As for prop 19, if you’re right about cell phones/youth voter surges (and living on a college campus, I’d imagine the last part holds true for prop 19), I think it passes, but barely.

    Still, this election is unique if only because of its large degree of uncertainty…I’m eager to see how all of this shakes out. I also think Strickland could conceivably hold on in ohio, and I’ll go ahead and call Florida for Sink– and since redistricting is coming up, the importance of those two wins should not be underestimated.

    Sam

    November 1, 2010 at 9:52 pm

  3. I have no freakin’ idea. The polls are really meaningless if we have no idea who’s going to vote. And apparently we don’t. I just think AK has to go for McAdams. Palin is all in on the crashing-and-burning Miller. And Feingold has to hang on, he just does, right?

    Most curiously — does the Senate move to the LEFT if we lose 3-4 seats and one of those is Reid?

    Dan

    November 1, 2010 at 10:20 pm

  4. Sam, I’ve never understood why pot propositions can’t pass, but history has taught me they can’t. CO is very weird in part because the governor’s race is so screwed up; you may have seen the TPM post recently saying that the GOP could actually be kicked down to minority status over it. My confidence on the 7 goes:

    WA –> WV –> CO/NV –> NV/CO –> IL –> PA –> AK

    I think Alaska is a complete crapshoot and have faith in the wisdom of the Good People of Pennsylvania.

    Dan, the Reid question is interesting but I do think he’ll make it all moot by hanging on. Wish you were right about Feingold. That’s one I’d love to be wrong about.

    gerrycanavan

    November 1, 2010 at 10:52 pm

  5. Well, let’s examine the 100% best-case scenario. Modest losses in both houses, but D’s retain both. The “conventional wisdom” that emerges from the results is that Democrats who spoke strongly for what they believed in won. Blue Dogs who decided to vote no on the tough votes in an attempt to stay in office were kicked out anyway. Sen. Merkley and new Maj. Leader Durbin/Schumer lead procedural reform efforts in Jan. 2011.

    I think that the great contrast of 2010 is Lincoln and Specter. Lincoln’s centrism did her a hell of a lot of good, didn’t it? And yet win or lose, Sestak has made a race that absolutely wouldn’t have been one if Specter had won.

    If Perriello wins, I see no limits to where he can go from there. Of course, even if he loses, he still might be VA’s next governor.

    Dan

    November 1, 2010 at 11:21 pm

  6. I know we don’t like to think about governor’s races, because we think that state and local politics don’t matter, but the situation in gov’s races and state senates looks far worse than at the national level. Just saying.

    Also, thank God Barbara Boxer is probably not going to lose.

    Alex

    November 2, 2010 at 12:44 am

  7. Looks like I got the -6 right by misreading the 538 blog after all — with 5/7 of the close races it would have actually been -5. But I’ll take it. #halfright

    gerrycanavan

    November 3, 2010 at 9:15 am

  8. […] I mentioned last night, overs beat the unders, which means my more optimistic predictions were 2/3 wrong: Republicans overshot the House predictions and Sestak and Giannoulias both lost […]


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