Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Prediction Accountability

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Mark Schmitt of TAPPED grades election predictions for the 2008 cycle, with highest marks going to Nate Silver (who else?) and John Judis and Ruy Teixeira of “Emerging Democratic Majority” fame:

After the 2000 election, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published a book arguing that Democrats would build a majority based on nonwhite and Hispanic voters, shifts in the suburbs, and strength among professionals concentrated in “ideopolises” like the Research Triangle in North Carolina. They were quiet this year (although Ruy produced a superb series of demographic analyses of the country and various states), but their predictions were close to an exact map of the Obama demographic. So why not a solid A? There has to be a little penalty for being ahead of the curve.

Written by gerrycanavan

November 10, 2008 at 5:38 pm

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