Gerry Canavan

the smartest kid on earth

Are the Polls Narrowing?

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Are the polls narrowing? It’s hard to say: MyDD makes a strong claim that they aren’t, despite eager media reports to the contrary and an RCP chart that certainly looks like it might be.

OpenLeft, for its part, looks at the electoral map and concludes that Obama has 264/270 more or less locked up whether the polls narrow or not, meaning that we should focus on CO, FL, MO, NV, NC, OH, and VA, a victory in any one of which will mean President Obama. (He’s currently ahead in all seven.)

Nate Silver, whose credibility as a statistician gets another well-deserved boost today after the Tampa Bay Rays make the World Series—he was “one of the only people expecting the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to win 90 games this year”—is still predicting an Obama landslide with high certainty, and notes that Obama seems to be dominating early voting. With early voting started, we’re in the home stretch now—every day that goes by with Obama in the lead is another ten thousand votes that get locked in for our side.

Written by gerrycanavan

October 20, 2008 at 6:59 pm

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